Phillies vs Brewers Predictions, Picks, Odds: Back Brew Crew, Strong Miley Outing

September baseball is fun. It’s even better when the teams playing are playing meaningful baseball, and Sunday’s season series finale between the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers gives us just that. 

The Phillies may be out of the NL East pennant race, but they have a 4.5-game lead in the NL Wild Card race, with the Cubs and Giants chasing them down. Meanwhile, the Brewers have a 4.5-game lead over the Cubs and are looking for their ninth series sweep of the season and fifth at American Family Field.

I break down the matchup and more in our free MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Brewers below.

Phillies vs Brewers odds

Phillies vs Brewers predictions

Sunday features two of the hottest teams in the National League, and my best bet is for this game to stay Under 9 (-105) at PointsBet. 

Ranger Suarez is coming off a stint on the IL, but before landing on the injury report, he allowed five earned runs over 18 1/3 frames. He's pitched well away from Citizens Bank Park, posting a 3.90 xFIP and limiting hitters to a .323 wOBA.  

He's striking out 14% of the hitters he’s faced this season and whiffs nearly seven per nine innings. The Milwaukee Brewers have the highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties and have scored the 21st fewest runs in baseball against southpaws. Milwaukee will have a difficult time with Suarez on Sunday.

Wade Miley has been steady for the Brewers. He’s allowed 11 earned runs over his past 26 innings at home, with seven of those earned runs against the Dodgers five home starts ago. Since then, Miley has had a good run at home, allowing just four earned runs over 22 frames.

The Brewers hurler is striking out six per nine at home this season and his 16.6% strikeout rate should play well against the Phillies and their 24% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching. Miley will serve one up the occasional bomb at home, and while Philly has some good power, the veteran southpaw walks 2.32 per nine, which should keep the scoring to a minimum if one does indeed leave the yard.

Finally, neither offense hits lefties well at all. Suarez has been good on the road all season and up against one of the worst offenses in baseball, with the highest strikeout in the game against lefties.

Miley has been steady and pitching very well at home over his past five games, and the Philly offense is only mediocre against southpaws. Both bullpens are better than average, and nine runs are simply too many for this matchup. 

My best bet: Under 9 (-105 at PointsBet)

Phillies vs Brewers same-game parlay

Under 9 (-118)

Brewers ML (-104)

Brewers F5 ML (+116)

+317 at FanDuel

We’ve already discussed why the Under 9 is my best bet. That pick is based on my belief our two starters are facing teams with below-average strikeout rates against left-handed pitching.

Neither side has been profitable in F5 wagers, but I like Miley to get the job done. His season numbers at home don’t look as good as his past five home starts have, and the strikeout potential is encouraging. Suarez is returning from a hamstring injury, and he faces a Brewers side averaging 3.89 runs of support per Miley start. 

Finally, the Brewers have won eight straight at home and have won four of their past five. Each of their four series sweeps came at home while the Phillies have suffered four away sweeps. Sunday will be the fifth. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Brewers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

This has been a great series between two of the hottest clubs in the NL. The Brewers wrapped up both the series and season series last night with a 7-5 victory and would love to take a 5-1 winning margin into a possible playoff matchup.

Last night's Brewers win was the eighth consecutive victory at American Family Field for the Brew Crew. The Over is 10-0in Milwaukee's last 10 at home. 

The Phillies have been swept in a three-game series four times this season. All four came away from home, but they also won the final game to avoid the sweep twice. 

Meanwhile, the Brewers have swept eight series this season, four of which came at American Family Field. Milwaukee has lost twice this season's final game of a possible series sweep.

The Phillies away record fell to 33-35 with their 7-5 loss Saturday. Milwaukee is 40-27 as the home side this season.  

Trend to know

The Brewers are 8-0 over their past eight home games and 7-0 at home against teams with a losing road record. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs Brewers

Phillies vs Brewers game info

Starting pitchers

Ranger Suarez (2-6, 3.88 ERA): Suarez was activated off the 15-day IL on Friday and while his results have been spotty this season, his away splits are much better than they are at home. The Venezuelan southpaw boasts a 2.76 ERA with a 3.90 xFIP over 49 away frames with less than three walks and 0.39 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Wade Miley (7-3, 3.17 ERA): Miley is having a good season for the Brew Crew. The veteran lefty has pitched well at times at American Family Field, posting a 3.31 ERA with 2.3 walks and 1.39 bombs. The Louisiana native has allowed 10 earned runs over his last 28 innings pitched, but his 5.90 xFIP at home could mean some regression is in store. 

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