The Philadelphia Phillies appeared set in the World Series odds before a tight Game 3 in Arizona went the way of the Diamondbacks. Now, both bullpens will be pitted against each other in a pivotal Game 4 in the desert.
Can Philly come up with a big win in the MLB odds to take a stranglehold of this series on Friday, or will we head to Game 5 with the series level?
Let's dive right into tonight's matchup with our in-depth MLB playoff predictions and MLB picks for Game 4 of Phillies vs. Diamondbacks.
Phillies vs Diamondbacks odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks Game 4 odds
Phillies vs Diamondbacks series odds
Phillies
DiamondbacksPhillies vs Diamondbacks predictions
This has all the makings of a bullpen game for the Philadelphia Phillies, and that’s not something that should scare you off of the favorites here. Philly’s got a solid opener here in Cristopher Sanchez, who will be followed by a decently well-rested stable.
Sanchez can get this team enough innings on the front end based on what we’ve seen from him so far this year, and behind him will be a rested Matt Strahm and Seranthony Dominguez. This bullpen has been the best in the National League this postseason, posting a 1.63 ERA in 27 2/3 innings, and the combination of Sanchez and Strahm is particularly tasty.
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished up the season ranked 23rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers, and now they will have to deal with a guy in Sanchez who is incredibly effective with the changeup — a pitch they have not hit well.
On the other side of this matchup, the hosts aren’t quite as well-equipped to deploy their bullpen for the entirety of this one. Four of Arizona’s top five relievers were used in Thursday night’s win, and one of their shakiest — Joe Mantiply — will be deployed to start this one.
This bullpen has really struggled outside Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel, and both men will be working with a bit of fatigue — and also won’t be available for more than two or so innings. This one will be up to Arizona’s bullpen, which has failed it so far in October. That provides more than enough reason to drink the juice and back Philly.
My best bet: Phillies moneyline (-130 at BetMGM)
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Phillies vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay
Phillies moneyline (-136)
Trea Turner 2+ total bases (-115)
Alec Bohm 2+ total bases (+100)
Between Mantiply, Andrew Saalfrank, and Kyle Nelson, there’s a good chance both of these guys get multiple at-bats versus lefties. I think that’s excellent news for Alec Bohm, who boasted 142 wRC+ versus southpaws this year. He hasn’t exactly been the hottest hitter in the order this October, but with a hit in two straight, I think he’s trending upwards and nearing a breakout performance.
We’ll also back the ever-so-red-hot Trea Turner. He has been particularly dangerous in this series versus the Diamondbacks’ bullpen and half of his 16 hits have gone for extra bases — something that should put his total bases number squarely within reach.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Phillies vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Diamondbacks can't hit the ball very well, and they have pounded it into the ground more than any team this October. While you’d think that makes for a good matchup versus Sanchez, Arizona has been at its worst against groundball pitchers this year.
On the other side, the Phillies are firmly a flyball team playing in one of the unfriendliest parks for teams such as themselves. With homers hard to come by, it’s hard to see Philly running up the score here and winning commandingly.
Under 9.5 runs is definitely in play tonight. It’s hard not to love the Phillies’ bullpen, which completely shut down the Braves in the NLDS, and they should help us cash in on a low-scoring game.
DraftKings has taken in 53% of the bets and 54% of the handle on the Under while the Phillies have commanded 72% of the bets and 84% of the handle.
Trend to know
The Phillies have cashed the moneyline in 72 of their last 119 games (+11.00 Units / 6% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
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Phillies vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Friday, October 20, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:07 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
Starting pitchers
Cristopher Sanchez (0-0, 0.00 ERA): The lefty has come alive in his third big-league season, featuring an excellent changeup and expert command of the zone with a strong 24.2% strikeout rate. He was great in the rotation and in the bullpen for Philly, posting a 3.77 xERA in 99 1/3 innings.
Joe Mantiply (2-0, 9.00 ERA): The southpaw took a step back this year at the age of 36, pitching to a 4.62 ERA and losing his grip on a high-leverage role for the Diamondbacks. He’s allowed three earned runs in three innings this postseason, which have all come in his one outing in this series.
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