The Philadelphia Phillies may be one of the best teams in baseball but they certainly haven't played like it lately. After getting walloped 10-2 by the Seattle Mariners on Friday night, the Phillies have lost five straight and moved to 3-10 since the All-Star break.
I take a look at Seattle’s offensive outlook with my Phillies vs. Mariners predictions and MLB picks for Saturday, August 3.
Phillies vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Mariners team total Over 4.5 (+126 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Hunting for the playoffs with a below-average offense is a dicey proposition. The front office of the Seattle Mariners took a look at their maligned lineup before the All-Star break and decided to acquire two impact bats: Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner.
Their outlook is looking brighter, and not just due to those two acquisitions. Seattle has posted a 110 wRC+ and .318 wOBA since the break and has looked particularly lethal lately, averaging 7.3 runs in its last seven games.
The Philadelphia Phillies plan to use a bullpen game on Saturday with Kolby Allard working as a bulk reliever behind opener Orion Kerkering. Allard first appeared in the Big Leagues in 2018 and has been hit hard ever since, posting a 6.11 ERA and 5.32 FIP.
The southpaw made his season debut on Sunday, allowing three earned on six hits and a walk while recording a single lonely strikeout across four innings. Seattle’s lineup should be able to get to Allard considering it's posted a 115 wRC+ and .325 wOBA against LHP since July 4.
We may not see Allard for an extended time on Saturday, so let’s take a closer look at Philadelphia’s bullpen. I warn you, what we're about to discover is not for the faint of heart.
The Phillies have been miserable in relief since the break, posting a 4.82 FIP and 1.40 WHIP. It certainly doesn’t help that they didn’t have much rest a day ago — five relievers were needed after starter Tyler Phillips was bounced after recording just five outs.
T-Mobile Park is typically a pitcher’s haven, but Saturday night’s forecast smiles upon offense. It’ll be a warm evening (83 degrees at the time of first pitch) with winds of 4.7 to 6.9 mph blowing out to left field.
Phillies vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Mariners team total Over 4.5
Randy Arozarena Over 1.5 total bases
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 total bases
Arozarena destroys LHP (153 wRC+ and .380 wOBA) so he’s set to dole out damage when Allard is on the mound. The slugger has been red hot with a 163 wRC+ in July and a 202 wRC+ in August, so he can punish any reliever he faces as well.
Bryce Miller gets the nod for Seattle. While he’s been running hot at home (1.88 ERA, 0.88 WHIP, 2.48 FIP), there are some concerns under the hood. He pitches to contact yet ranks in the sixth percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 mph) and the eighth percentile in barrel rate (10.8%), so it’s highly unlikely his artificially deflated .248 BABIP continues for long.
Philadelphia has been so awful at the plate lately that it’s difficult to feel good about the offense as a whole, but Kyle Schwarber is an exception. Miller has severe splits (4.75 FIP against left-handed batters while allowing 24 of his 34 extra-base hits) and Schwarber is averaging 3.0 total bases across his last six games.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Phillies vs Mariners odds
Phillies vs Mariners live odds
Phillies vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-185) | Seattle -1.5 (+155)
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +105 | Seattle -125
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Phillies vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- Seattle has been difficult to beat at home (32-23) and has come away victorious in three of Miller’s last four starts.
- Philadelphia has covered the run line in just 16 of its last 43 games.
- Seattle has cashed the Under in 27 of its last 41 home games.
Phillies vs Mariners trend
The Mariners have scored 5+ runs in six of its last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mariners.
Phillies vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 8-3-2024 |
| First pitch: | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBCS-Philadelphia, RSNW |
| Phillies starting pitcher: | Kolby Allard (0-0, 6.75 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (8-7, 3.46 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mariners latest injuries
Phillies vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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