Mayday! Mayday!
This week's edition of Sunday Night Baseball features the Phillies and Mets. It will be the deciding match of a three-game set that saw the Mets take Game 1 3-0 and the Phillies nab Game 2 in 4-1 fashion.
It’s expected to be a low-scoring affair between two strong pitchers in Max Scherzer and Zach Eflin. After only eight total runs were scored in the first two games, will the low-scoring ways continue in this series?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets on Sunday, May 1 to find out.
Phillies vs Mets odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The Mets opened as -176 favorites at home. The line currently resides between -175 and -186 depending on the book. The total has been set at 7 across most books, but 6.5 is also available at some spots.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Phillies vs Mets predictions
Picks made on 5/1/2022 at 11:15 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Phillies vs Mets game info
• Location: Citi Field, Flushing, NY
• Date: Sunday, May 1, 2022
• First pitch: 7:08 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
Phillies vs Mets betting preview
Starting pitchers
Zach Eflin (1-1, 3.20 ERA): The 6-foot-6 right-hander has a 3.20 ERA across 19 2-3 innings over four starts. He’s had two good outings (against the Rockies last time out, against the Athletics in his first game) separated by two poor showings (Rockies, Marlins). He had a 4.17 ERA across 105 2-3 innings in 2021, but his 3.284 xERA and 3.68 FIP indicate that he is a solid pitcher. He doesn't miss many bats (7.49 career K/9) but doesn’t issue a lot of free passes, either (1.36 BB/9 in 2021).
Max Scherzer (3-0, 1.80 ERA): Scherzer has continued his stellar pitching in his first year for New York. Across four starts, he’s allowed only five total earned runs while striking out 33 batters. He sports a microscopic 1.80 ERA and 0.76 WHIP. His last two starts have been particularly impressive, going 14 combined innings while allowing only three hits and one earned with 20 strikeouts. He’s in great form.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Phillies: Rafael Marchan C (Out), Ryan Sherriff RP (Out), Sam Coonrod RP (Out), Kent Emanuel RP (Out), JoJo Romero RP (Out).
Mets: Sean Reid-Foley RP (Out), John Curtiss RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Under is 3-0-1 in the Mets' last four games as a home favorite. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets
Phillies vs Mets picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The juice appears justified for the home favorite.
Max Scherzer has been fantastic for the Mets. Across his last two starts, he's allowed only three hits while striking out 20 batters. If you’re waiting for the 37-year-old to lose his stuff, you might not want to hold your breath. His 11.88 K/9 ratio is above his career mark (10.73), and the same can be said about his ERA, FIP, and xFIP from 2021.
Zach Eflin is a solid pitcher, as we’ll touch on later, but the Mets have the pitching advantage in this matchup. New York’s bullpen is also superior, rocking a 3.16 ERA. Philadelphia’s struggles in relief have been well documented. In 2022, the bullpen has a 4.06 ERA and 1.30 WHIP.
The Mets also have a superior lineup, ranking second in batting average and fourth in OPS (the Phillies are eighth and ninth, respectively). New York also ranks higher in wRC+ (third to Philadelphia's 13th) and wOBA (fourth to Philadelphia’s ninth).
New York has the advantage in starting pitching, relief pitching, and the lineup. The Mets appear to be the superior team and will be playing at home. We don’t love laying this amount of juice, but they’re the side to back.
Prediction: Mets moneyline (-175 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
Scherzer has been in peak form to begin 2022 and is showing no signs of slippage at this point in his career. He’s facing a decent Phillies lineup that has been cold in this series, managing just four total runs in the first two games.
Zach Eflin is a solid pitcher and one who seems to fly under the radar. After a rough first two seasons in the league, he’s settled down and posted solid peripherals.
Although his ERA has mostly hovered around 4.00, his xERA has been below 4.00 every season since 2018. He’s also sported a FIP below 4.00 every season since 2018 except once.
Both starting pitchers are dealing to begin 2022. This is a low total, but for good reason.
This has been a low-scoring series and all signs point toward a pitching duel on Sunday Night baseball. We’ll take the Under.
Prediction: Under 7 (-120 at PointsBet)
Best bet
This total has been set at 7 for a reason. This should be a pitching duel between a peak-form Max Scherzer and an underrated Zach Eflin.
We like the Mets as the side, but don’t believe there is much value on their money line. Instead, we're targeting this total as our best bet.
We expect another low-scoring game to close out this series and will be playing the Under.
Pick: Under 7 (-120 at PointsBet)
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