The Philadelphia Phillies and Tampa Bay Rays open up a three-game set at the Trop this afternoon and both winning clubs will be throwing out some front-end arms as Aaron Nola goes up against Zach Eflin.
However, after 250+ innings of work from Nola in 2022 and some concerning numbers across the board this season — especially on the road — is today a perfect time to fade the Philly starter vs. one of the best offenses in baseball?
Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB betting picks for Phillies vs. Rays for Tuesday, July 4.
Phillies vs Rays odds
Phillies vs Rays predictions
Aaron Nola has allowed three or more earned runs in 11 of his 17 starts this season and in 80% of his road starts. The right-hander is coming off a long 2022 that saw him throw over 250 innings including the postseason and his 2023 numbers are nowhere near where they were a season ago.
Nola has seen a significant drop in his strikeout rate and a rise in his walk and home run rates. He’s getting fewer outs on the ground this year, has a slight spin-rate decrease over his last three starts, and all of his pitches have seen a slight drop in velocity compared to a season ago.
Now Nola has to face an elite offense in Tampa Bay that scores the second-most runs per game at home behind only the Rangers.
The visiting pitcher has given up his fair share of long balls this season (the 10th most in baseball) and could find himself with a stiff neck vs. an offense that averages 1.51 long balls per game, the third-best mark in baseball.
Eleven of Nola’s 17 homers have come on the road and he’s allowed at least one four-bagger in 10 of his last 11 starts. Stringing together singles isn’t the easiest way to three earned runs vs. Nola, but with some command issues and a flyball frequency, the Rays could hit the Over 2.5 earned runs early, even if Nola is sharp.
The Philadelphia Phillies starter also gets a long leash so there will be plenty of time to get this Over the line if Tampa strands some early runners.
My best bet: Aaron Nola Over 2.5 earned runs (-113)
Phillies vs Rays same-game parlay
Aaron Nola Over 2.5 earned runs (-115)
Luke Raley to record 2+ total bases (+165)
Aaron Nola Under 18.5 outs (-170)
Nola has a tough matchup vs. the Tampa Bay offense and the right-hander's play away from home has not impressed after a heavy workload in 2022. He's given up 3+ runs in nine of his 10 road starts this season and pitching into the seventh is not an easy thing to do vs. this offense.
Raley is currently hitting in the No. 4 spot in this lineup, has a .950 OPS on the season, and is slashing .319/.407/.649 over the last 30 days. He is plenty insulated in this lineup and has a multi-hit game in eight of his last 20 contests.
The true odds are +680 but all three plays are correlated.
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Phillies vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Zach Eflin and the Rays opened as -140 home favorites at bet365 and have since moved to -145. It's the longest Eflin has been at home over his last five home starts where he’s averaged a -188 favorite. He closed as a -165 favorite vs. the Blue Jays (Alek Manoah) in a 6-3 win back in late May where the books were still pricing Monaoh as a good pitcher.
Aaron Nola has not been his 2022 self this season and has seen drops across the board in K%, BB%, and HR/FB%. He’s given up 17 long balls this year as his flyball rate has also increased this season.
The Rays could be without middle-of-the-order hitter Isaac Parades after exited Sunday’s game but there's still a chance he suits up. If he doesn’t, this is still a deep enough lineup that can make up for the loss as Luke Raley is posting an OPS north of 1.000 over his last 10 games.
Tampa's Sunday lineup had a near-.850 OPS average across the first six batters of the lineup. At home, this is also the best team in baseball at 34-10 SU on the season and is 7-1 SU when entering a match on a two-game skid.
One thing that separates these teams is how well they each play against good competition. The Rays have a league-best 31-17 SU record vs. teams with a winning record while the Phillies have done most of their damage vs. the bottom-feeders as they are 19-27 SU vs. winning clubs. Detroit (16-31 SU) and Colorado (16-32 SU) aren’t much worse than the visitors in that sense, for comparison's sake.
Both bullpens are rested after a day off yesterday so that’s another advantage to the home side that I wouldn't be surprised to close closer to -160. I'm playing the Rays moneyline to -150.
The total opened at 7.5 but hit 8 quickly and will likely close there. The inconsistencies from Nola have me off it, though. At 49-34-4 O/U, Tampa is one of the best Over teams in baseball but the Phillies are one of the best Under teams at 31-44-8 O/U.
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Trend to know
The Phillies are 0-7 in their last seven games on astroturf. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rays
Phillies vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL |
| Date: | Tuesday, July 4, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Aaron Nola (7-5, 4.51 ERA): Nola will be making his 18th start of the season and enters today with a 102:29 K/BB rate over 105 2/3 innings with 17 home runs allowed (T-10th most). His K% is down while his BB% and HR/FB% are up but his xERA and xFIP are better than the base numbers. He has a solid 30% CSW% yet the Phillies are 8-9 SU when he starts. THE BAT is projecting 100 pitches, 18.2 outs, 6.95 strikeouts, 1.36 walks, and 2.80 earned runs.
Zach Eflin (9-3, 3.29 ERA): Eflin will be making his 16th start of the season and has recorded a quality start in seven of his last eight turns. He carries a 91:15 K/BB rate over 90+ innings with 10 home runs allowed and six homerless starts over his last seven. He has, however, posted a 4.18 ERA over his last four starts and averages under 90 pitches per start. The Rays are an incredible 12-3 SU when he starts and THE BAT projects 91 pitches, 17 outs, 5.30 strikeouts, and 2.58 earned runs.
