Phillies vs Rays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Philly Cooks Floundering Rays

The Philadelphia Phillies have stretched their road winning streak to 11 games and will look for a three-game sweep of the Tampa Bay Rays who are riding a season-high four-game skid. 

With the Phillies starters going deep and the Rays turning to a bullpen for the second straight game, does the edge Philly has in the later inning enough to back the road warriors as a plus-money dogs on the MLB odds?

Find out where my best bets lie in our MLB picks and predictions for Phillies vs. Rays for Thursday, July 6.

Phillies vs Rays odds

Phillies vs Rays predictions

The Tampa Bay Rays will be going with an opener for the second straight day and middle relievers Luis Patino and Zack Littell (who opened yesterday) both threw more than 35 pitches yesterday and will likely be unavailable today. That leaves a surprisingly inadequate Tampa bullpen to eat a lot of innings shorthanded. 

On the season, Tampa relievers have a collective decent 3.90 ERA but rank 27th in WAR. They’ve also thrown 367-plus innings which is the most in all of baseball. It's a pen that's been asked to do more than most with the injuries to the starting rotation and is skidding into the All-Star break. 

In the series, the Philadelphia Phillies have seen 11 innings vs. this Tampa Bay bullpen and is 19-for-51 (.372 AVG) and has scored nine total runs. Getting back-to-back bullpen days is a blessing for this surging Philly offense that's primed to have another big night and cash that Over 4.5 team total for plus money.

My best bet: Phillies team total Over 4.5 (+105 at Pinnacle)

Phillies vs Rays same-game parlay

PHI TT O4.5 (-105)

Arozarena Over 0.5 stolen bases (+625)

Turner Over 0.5 stolen bases (+310)

+4,000 at bet365

Let's go big today on the SGP with a pair of stolen-base props that are showing plenty of value from THE BAT projections. Randy Aronzarena's implied stolen bases at +625 are 0.15 when THE BAT is projecting 0.28 which is the highest projection of the game and one of the best +EV plays in all of baseball today, per the projections. 

I'm getting a little greedy adding Trea Turner here but if you keep him off, it's still a +1,200 SGP. Turner is getting on base at a .400 clip over the last two weeks and is a perfect 5-0 swiping bags. He is one of the batters at the top of this order that is turning things around. It's always easier to steal bases with a lead and I hope that's the case with Turner and the Phillies today. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Phillies vs Rays moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Phillies have taken both games of this series — each as a dog — and look to make it 12 straight victories on the road while simultaneously handing the sliding Rays their fifth straight loss. 

Philadelphia opened as long as +150 at DraftKings and has taken enough money to move the line to +120. Considering the Rays are using an opener for a second straight day and will be digging into their average-to-poor bullpen that ranks 27th in WAR, per FanGraphs, the visitors are live dogs today.

Aaron Nola went 22 outs in the series opener while Taijuan Walker went seven innings yesterday in the Phillies’ 8-4 win. Every arm in the visitor’s bullpen is available today and the starting pitching matchup is also in their favor.

Christopher Sanchez should give some competent innings but even if he slips and goes less than 15 outs, the bullpen could bail him out thanks to recent rest. The Phillies will be able to chip away vs. a shorthanded bullpen with Shawn Armstrong projected to go once through the order.

The Rays are the best home team in baseball with a 34-12 SU record, but the Phillies have ripped off 11 straight road wins and are averaging 7.82 runs per game over that stretch. The dormant bats at the top of the order have awoken and now the Phillies are playing like they did in the second half of the 2022 season. Despite the ML moving so much, there is still room to hop on the Phillies at +120 or even +115.

They closed as +110 dogs vs. an opener yesterday and beat up the bullpen for six runs. Anything better than that price is a go for me on the ML.

Looking at the total, it closed at 8 on Tuesday, 9 yesterday, opened at 9, and hit 9.5 at most places by noon. If bettors can find an Over 9 at -125, they might be sitting with some CLV as this total is likely to close at 9.5.

I’m off the total that has adjusted accordingly to the Rays’ bullpen situation and a slight drop from Walker to Sanchez. The Rays are one of the best Over teams in baseball at 58% but the Phillies have cashed the Under in 58.4% of their games thanks to an underperforming offense but one that has turned the corner of late.    

Trend to know

The Phillies are 9-0 in their last nine road games vs. a right-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Rays

Phillies vs Rays game info

Starting pitchers

Christopher Sanchez (0-2, 3.26 ERA): Sanchez will be making his fifth start of the season and carries a 20:4 K/BB rate over 19 1/3 innings with two home runs allowed. The groundball pitcher threw a season-high 86 pitches in his last outing and recorded the quality start vs. the Nats but has had a fairly easy schedule with games against the Nationals, Athletics, Rockies, and Mets. THE BAT is projecting 79 pitches, 13.6 outs, 3.27 strikeouts, and 2.65 earned runs.   

Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 1.15 ERA): Armstong will work as an opener for a Tampa team that is dealing with a lot of injuries to the rotation. The right-hander hasn’t gone more than six outs in any of his 19 appearances and likely won’t see more than nine batters tonight. Armstrong has started just one game this year going two innings and allowing no runs on one hit. THE BAT is projecting 5.5 outs and 1.00 earned runs. 

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