The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago Cubs wrap up a three-game series at Wrigley Field on Thursday night. The Cubs are seven games below .500 but look to sweep the NL Central-leading Pirates tonight.
Oddsmakers expect them to do just that with MLB betting lines installing the Cubs as -160 home favorites for this divisional clash with the Over/Under at 7. Here are my best free Pirates vs. Cubs MLB picks and predictions for June 15.
Pirates vs Cubs odds
Pirates vs Cubs predictions
The Buccos are sending Johan Oviedo to the hill, and while he throws with excellent extension and high-end velocity (with his heater averaging 96.2 mph), he doesn't rack up many strikeouts. The 25-year-old ranks in the bottom 30th percentile of the majors in strikeout rate and is in the bottom 10th percentile in chase rate.
Oviedo has struggled with his command and while he has looked very sharp over the last month that hasn't been reflected in his strikeout totals. In fact, the Over/Under on his strikeouts total is set at 5.5, a number he has eclipsed just once in his last nine starts.
While the Cubs are 25th in the majors in strikeout rate they rank a respectable 10th in chase rate and 12th in whiff rate. That means that their lineup is fairly patient at the plate and is less likely to chase Oviedo's pitches out of the zone.
Oviedo should benefit from the wind blowing toward the infield at Wrigley today, but while that will help suppress the fly balls he gives up, it won't help him in the strikeout column.
My best bet: Johan Oviedo Under 5.5 strikeouts (-105)
Pirates vs Cubs same-game parlay
Johan Oviedo Under 5.5 strikeouts
First Five Innings Under 4.5
Andrew McCutchen Under 0.5 runs
Although I don't see Oviedo getting many strikeouts in this game, I do think he'll be able to able to limit a Cubs team that is batting just .213 this month.
After all, Oviedo had an ugly 5.59 ERA through his first seven starts of the year but has pitched to a 2.62 ERA with an OBA of .187 in six starts since.
Marcus Stroman has been even better lately, pitching to a 1.26 ERA with an OBA of .150 over his last five starts. With both starters locked in I don't see more than four runs being scored in the first five innings. Especially when you factor in the wind at Wrigley Field which is blowing towards the infield at around 20 mph.
Since I'm not expecting much scoring in this contest, I'm also fading Andrew McCutchen on his runs total. The leadoff hitter has an OBP of just .188 in 15 career at-bats against Stroman. Even if he does get on base, there's a good chance he won't plate a run since he's been held off the scoresheet in eight of his last 12 games
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Pirates vs Cubs moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Pirates were favored for the first two games in this series but lost 11-3 on Tuesday before falling 10-6 last night. They remain atop the NL Central but their middling 34-32 record means that just 1.5 games separate them from third-place Cincinnati.
The Cubs opened as -165 faves at bet365 with that number ticking down ever so slightly to -160 as of 10 a.m. ET. That's due to home-field advantage and the fact that Stroman is superior (in terms of both recent form and overall body of work) to Oviedo, since the Buccos have been better at the plate.
The Pirates are 13th in the majors in OPS (.736) while the Cubs are two spots behind them with an OPS of .721. However, there has been a much bigger gap between these teams at the plate lately with the Pirates racking up an OPS of .802 over the last 15 days while the Cubs are dead-last in the majors with an OPS of .600 during the same time span.
The Over/Under opened at an extremely low 6.5 and juiced towards the Over at -125. That total has ticked up to 7 at most books but is now juiced towards the Under at around -120.
That low total is due to how sharp both starters have been lately, the Cubs slumping at the dish, and the always influential wind at Wrigley.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can get a no-sweat first bet up to $2,500! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB SGP at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Trend to know
The Cubs are 7-1 in the last eight meetings between these NL Central rivals. Find more MLB betting trends for Pirates vs. Cubs
Pirates vs Cubs game info
| Location: | Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL |
| Date: | Thursday, June 15, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 8:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ATTP, MARQ |
Starting pitchers
John Oviedo RHP (3-5, 4.16 ERA): Oviedo began last season working out of the bullpen for the Cardinals before being traded to the Pirates and making seven starts, where he posted a 3.23 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP.
He has a 3.98 FIP with a 1.43 WHIP in 13 starts this year and is fresh off an outing against the Mets where he allowed four hits and a pair of runs across 6 1/3 innings.
Marcus Stroman RHP (7-4, 2.42 ERA): Stroman had a 3.50 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP in 25 starts in his first season with the Cubs in 2022. He's been even better in his second year with the club pitching to a 1.04 WHIP with an OBA of .191 through 14 starts. The 2019 All-Star pitched a complete game one-hitter against the Rays at the end of May and has allowed just two runs in 12 2/3 innings since.
