Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Trust in Triston McKenzie

Prop bet #1: Brooklyn style

Now that Cleveland Guardians starter Triston McKenzie appears to have his good stuff back, betting the Under on his hits allowed prop looks to be a good bet until sportsbooks adjust.

The 26-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 2.28 ERA and is limiting opponents to a .208 batting average over his last five starts, and I like him to keep that going when he takes the ball today against American League Central rivals the Minnesota Twins.

McKenzie only uses three pitches: a four-seamer, a slider, and a curveball, but he mixes those pitches extremely well to keep hitters off balance. That should play well in today’s matchup against the Twins.

Minnesota features an all-or-nothing kind of lineup that relies on power. That comes at the detriment of the team’s batting average and can also mean Ks. The Twins rank 25th in batting average and 10th in strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching this season.

McKenzie also faced Minnesota once last season, and he was a real problem. The right-hander dominated the Twins, shutting them out on just one hit while striking out 10 over five innings.

But it’s not just McKenzie’s resurgent ability that makes his Under hits allowed a good bet. He’s also a little wild. McKenzie is in the 11th percentile for walk rate, giving out an average of three free passes per start. That helps build up his pitch count.

To put it simply, McKenzie doesn’t get hit much, but too many walks can result in a shorter outing for the right-hander. 

McKenzie’s hits allowed prop is sitting at 4.5. He’s stayed below that number in six of his eight starts this season.

Triston McKenzie prop: Under 4.5 hits allowed (-111 at Caesars)

Prop bet #2: Take the plunge on Polar Bear

New York Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is busting out of his slump in a big way, and the Polar Bear is showing us some great value in tonight’s matchup against National League East rivals the Miami Marlins.

Alonso has always been a streaky hitter and this season has been no different. Right now, he’s in one of those good streaks. The Mets’ slugger is hitting .313 with 1.028 OPS over his last eight games. That includes two home runs, five doubles, and seven runs batted in.

Despite this, Alonso is listed at +215 to go Over 0.5 RBI in this matchup. That’s in part because his splits against left-handed pitchers aren’t the greatest and he’ll face one in Jesus Luzardo today. That said, Alonso still hits for more power against left-handers and has a .805 OPS when facing southpaws this season.

On top of that, injuries have resulted in an inconsistent start to the season for Luzardo. The lefty is pitching to a 4.45 expected ERA, which ranks in the 28th percentile among MLB pitchers. He’s also getting hit hard. Luzardo ranks in the 38th percentile in hard-hit %, the 21st percentile in average exit velocity, and is in the Bottom 2% in barrel rate. 

Luzardo is also averaging just five innings per start this season. That means plenty of work for a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA and 23rd in xFIP.

The value here is too much to pass up. I’m betting Alonso leans into one tonight and drives in another run.

Pete Alonso prop: Over 0.5 RBI (+215 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Turn of the Sku'

Welcome to your contrarian prop bet of the day. Detroit Tigers starter Tarik Skubal looks like one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and is the betting favorite to win the American League Cy Young Award. So, of course, we’re taking the Under on his outs recorded prop when he takes the ball against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Let’s get this out of the way. Skubal has been awesome and is deserving of the status of AL Cy Young odds favorite. His outs recorded prop is sitting at 17.5 and that’s a number he’s gone Over in seven of his eight starts this season. But there is good reason to look at the Under in this matchup.

Let’s start with Skubal. The left-hander is obviously one of the best strikeout artists in the game. He is in the 92nd percentile when it comes to K-rate. But what is the one thing strikeouts mean? More pitches. And Skubal doesn’t have as long a leash as you would expect.

Skubal’s still young and the Tigers certainly don’t want to push him too hard at this point in his career. The lefty averages 90.5 pitches per start, and that bring us to tonight’s matchup.

The Diamondbacks are one of the best teams in the league when it comes to handling southpaws. Arizona ranks first in batting average and second in both OPS and wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching this season. The D-backs also have the third-lowest K-rate against lefties.

But it’s more than that. This is also a patient lineup. Arizona sees the ninth-most pitches and rank seventh in chase rate. 

Whether it’s a good night or not for Skubal, I can see the D-backs working deep into a lot of counts and getting that pitch count up more quickly than Skubal would like. Our Covers Prop Projections agree, setting him at 16.4 outs recorded. That makes the Under 17.5 outs with plus money like this another great value tonight.

Tarik Skubal prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+160 at bet365)