It might seem obvious to back one of baseball's best power hitters to hit a home run, but even at a relatively low +240 there's value in betting on Shohei Ohtani to go yard today.
See why I love that player prop in his matchup against the Brewers and also why I'm backing Sonny Gray and Jurickson Profar in my MLB picks for Friday. Here are my three favorite MLB player props for July 5.
MLB props for July 5
- Sonny Gray Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
- Jurickson Profar Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
- Shohei Ohtani to hit a home run (+240 at FanDuel)
Picks made on 7-5 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Sonny swats Nats
The Washington Nationals strike out at the eighth-lowest rate in the majors but the O/U on St. Louis Cardinals starter Sonny Gray's strikeouts total is still too low at 5.5. Gray doesn't throw with overpowering velocity but he has a ton of spin and horizontal movement on his pitches, which makes it tough for batters to make contact.
The veteran righty is fifth in the majors in strikeout rate (31.3%) and he's averaging 7.3 punchouts per start. With the Over 5.5 Ks for Gray installed at +110 and Gray eclipsing this number in 12 of his last 14 starts, this is an easy play.
Sonny Gray prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+120 at DraftKings)
Prop bet #2: Profar stings Slade
Arizona Diamondbacks right-hander Slade Cecconi might have a really cool name but he's also one of the worst starters on today's betting slate. The rookie has a 5.81 ERA through 12 starts and he's been rocked in a pair of outings against the San Diego Padres, allowing 12 hits and nine runs through 8 2/3 innings.
Jurickson Profar has been the Padres' best hitter and leads the club with 148 total bases while slashing .317/.409/.484. Despite the run-suppressing nature of Petco Park, he's actually been even more productive at home, where he slugs .542.
Cecconi relies primarily on his four-seamer, which he throws 53.6% of the time, and he also mixes in a slider and changeup. Opposing batters are slugging .570 against that fastball and his changeup has been his best offering. Profar has thrived against all three of those pitches, slugging .468 against four-seamers, .526 versus sliders, and .568 against changeups.
Jurickson Profar prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)
Prop bet #3: Sho' goes deep
Los Angeles Dodgers DH Shohei Ohtani leads the NL with 27 homers and a slugging percentage of .636. The superstar slugger has been even better over the last month slugging .743 with 13 homers in 26 games.
Ohtani also generally bats better at home (.669 slugging percentage) and when he has the platoon advantage (.712 slugging percentage), which means he should thrive tonight against Milwaukee Brewers right-hander Aaron Civale.
Civale is making his Milwaukee debut and he struggled with the Rays, pitching to a 5.07 ERA with an OBA of .270 through 17 starts. He's in the Bottom 10th percentile in ground-ball rate and he gets hit hard, which has resulted in the sixth-most home runs allowed in the majors (16). Expect Ohtani to go yard against either Civale or a Milwaukee reliever tonight.
Shohei Ohtani prop: To hit a home run (+240 at FanDuel)
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