Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Harper Remains Hot

Prop bet #1: Hicks is off the mark

Yesterday, we hit an Over on an elevated pitcher walks prop at nice plus money (shoutout Sean Manaea), and I’ve found a similar bet that I like for today. Our walk prop patsy for today is San Francisco Giants’ starter Jordan Hicks, who is slated to take the ball against the Chicago Cubs. 

Hicks was known for being a fireballing reliever before the Giants signed him this offseason intending to convert him to a starter. The experiment with the former reliever has gone pretty much as expected. Hicks started the season strong but the regression he’s going through now almost seemed predictable.

The 27-year-old right-hander is pitching to a 5.56 ERA and is getting tagged for a .875 OPS over his last five starts. His command has been a big problem, as he is walking 9.1% of batters faced this season. That ranks in the 35th percentile among MLB pitchers.

It’s been even worse lately, as Hicks’ walk rate has ballooned to 14.4% over his last four starts, and now he’ll have a tough matchup against a patient Cubs lineup. Chicago sees a lot of pitches, ranking seventh in total pitches this season. That has resulted in a lot of walks as the team ranks third in the majors in walk rate when facing right-handers.

Once again, Hicks’ walk prop is sitting at a high 2.5, but the +150 is enough to get me to fire on the Over here. Particularly when you consider he’s gone Over this number three times in his last four starts, including a recent meeting against the Cubs where he walked four batters.

Jordan Hicks prop: Over 2.5 walks (+150 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: Nice price on Bryce

With guys like Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani regularly pummeling baseballs this season, it feels like Bryce Harper can get a little overlooked, and somehow a little undervalued. But he shouldn’t be.

The two-time MVP is tearing the cover off the baseball and he gets a great matchup tonight when he and the Philadelphia Phillies take on Trevor Rogers and the bottom-feeding Miami Marlins.

Harper has been mashing all season long, hitting for a .305 average with a .987 OPS, 20 home runs, and 57 runs batted in, but he’s going nuclear right now. The seven-time All-Star is in the middle of an 11-game hitting streak where he has a .447 average, a 1.395 OPS, seven doubles, and five dingers.

He’ll dig in against Rogers tonight, who like most Marlins players is having a tough time this season. The 26-year-old left-hander is pitching to a 5.10 expected ERA while surrendering a .282 expected batting average to opponents. 

Now, you might think the lefty-lefty matchup would be a disadvantage for Harper, but not really. He’s actually hitting better against southpaws this season. Harper is getting to lefties for a .312 average and a 1.003 OPS. All this matchup is doing is giving us a little extra value.

Harper has driven in 11 runs over his last seven games, tallying at least one in four of those. We should not be getting +160 for him to get another RBI tonight. Plus, at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.

Bryce Harper prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+160 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: India sees it well in Cincy

Very quietly, Jonathan India has become one of the hottest hitters in baseball. The Cincinnati Reds second baseman enters tonight’s game against the St. Louis Cardinals riding an eight-game hitting streak, and I’m betting he keeps it going as he digs in against Miles Mikolas.

The baseball must look like the size of a grapefruit to India right now. It’s not that he’s just on an eight-game hitting streak, it’s that he has six multi-hit games during that stretch and at least one double in each of his last four games. Overall, he’s got a stupid .517 average and a 1.450 OPS during the streak, and he’ll be happy to see Mikolas staring back at him tonight.

The Redbirds veteran right-hander has had his struggles this season. Mikolas is pitching to a 4.03 expected ERA while giving up a .259 expected batting average to opponents. Those rank in the 46th and 29th percentiles, respectively. He also just doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, striking out 18.2% of batters faced and ranking in the Bottom 2% in whiff rate.

That’s not good against a guy who’s locked in and has had plenty of success against you in the past. India is 6-for-19 in his career vs. Mikolas, good for a .346 xBA and a .689 xSLG. 

With India also being a doubles machine lately, it seems crazy we are getting +135 on the Over 1.5 total bases for him tonight. It's a bar he's cleared seven times during this eight-game hitting streak.

Jonathan India prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135 at bet365)