The Seattle Mariners continue to thrive at home, having now won 10 of their last 11 overall after an extra-innings triumph over the Minnesota Twins on Friday.
A large part of that has been due to the pitching of Seattle, and my Twins vs Mariners predictions expect another low-scoring contest this evening at T-Mobile Park. Read more in my MLB picks for Saturday, June 29.
Twins vs Mariners prediction
My best bet
Under 7.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
My analysis
This is a matchup for the Baseball Savant lovers as Pablo Lopez, the owner of a 3.27 xERA and a 5.11 actual ERA, meets Bryce Miller, whose ERA is also almost 50 points under his expected number.
For Lopez, the Minnesota Twins right-hander has sported some odd metrics considering he has one of the best defenses in baseball behind him and has pitched a large complement of fly balls. Judging by Park Factor, there should be fewer balls leaving the yard at Target Field, which entered the season ranked 15th for home runs in the past few years, so the culprit there seems to be that the data doesn’t quite understand why he’s allowed 16 long-balls, including seven in Minnesota.
With that said, Lopez will now enter a venue on Saturday that is arguably the toughest to hit dingers. Considering the fly balls he generates, as well as a high 27.5% strikeout rate, he should work around a Seattle Mariners team that struggles to put the ball in play.
Then there’s Miller, who pitches to a wealth of fly balls and boasts a 1.82 ERA at home. Last night's game went to extras and finished with a final score of 3-2, and I expect a similar low-scoring output tonight.
Twins vs Mariners same-game parlay (SGP)
Under 7.5
Luke Raley to record a hit
Royce Lewis to record a hit
With no real value to be found in the strikeout props, I’ll spruce this up by combining some hitting props with the Under to give us a little odds boost.
The first hitter I’m targeting is Luke Raley, who owns a solid .270 batting average at home (ranking second on the M's). The left-handed bat has also fared incredibly well this season against fastballs, boasting a .292 average against the heater.
On the flip side, Royce Lewis is hitting over .300 versus fly ball pitchers in his career and owns a robust .308 xBA against fastballs of all types. The Twins' third baseman should be in for a good day against a starter who primarily throws a four-seamer and sinker.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Twins vs Mariners odds
Twins vs Mariners live odds
Twins vs Mariners opening odds
- Run line: Minnesota -1.5 (+150) | Seattle +1.5 (-185)
- Moneyline: Minnesota -115 | Seattle -105
- Over/Under: Over 7.5 (-105) | Under 7.5 (-115)
Twins vs Mariners spread and Over/Under analysis
- DraftKings is reporting that the Twins account for 55% of the bets and 59% of the money wagered on the moneyline.
- The total took a brief dip down to seven runs but has since returned to the opening number of 7.5.
- The Over has been a popular bet, with 56% of tickets headed that way, but a strong 64% of the handle is on the Under.
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Twins vs Mariners trend
Seattle has hit the game total Under in 24 of their last 35 games at home (+12.70 Units / 32% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Twins vs. Mariners
Twins vs Mariners game info
| Location: | T-Mobile Park, Seattle, WA |
| Date: | Saturday, 6-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSNO, RSNW |
| Twins starting pitcher: | Pablo Lopez (7-6, 5.11 ERA) |
| Mariners starting pitcher: | Bryce Miller (6-6, 3.90 ERA) |
Twins vs Mariners latest injuries
Twins vs Mariners weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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