Today’s MLB Prop Picks & Best Bets: Heyward's Prolonged Slump Continues

Prop bet #1: Alvarez stays hot

Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has been pitching very well lately, with a 1.47 ERA over his last eight starts. But it doesn’t matter how well he’s pitching because Houston Astros slugger Yordan Alvarez likely still gives him nightmares.

Alvarez just got named to his third consecutive All-Star game thanks to hitting .303 with a .935 OPS, 19 home runs, and 49 RBI, and he’s on another one of his patented heaters. Air Yordan is hitting .500 with a 1.698 OPS including four doubles, three dingers, and eight RBI over his last six games, and he’s historically been a problem for Bassitt.

The 27-year-old designated hitter has crushed the Blue Jays starter, going 8-for-18 in his career vs. Bassitt. And get this, five of those eight hits have left the ballpark. That’s good for a .435 expected batting average and a ridiculous 1.200 expected slugging percentage.

Even though Bassitt has been solid in recent games, his advanced numbers paint the picture of about a league-average starter. Bassitt owns a 4.12 expected ERA while surrendering a .256 expected batting average and striking out 21.8% of batters. Those rank in the 41st, 32nd, and 47th percentiles, respectively. 

Yordan has gone yard in each of the first three games of this series and while I’m not sure he hits another dinger, I can’t say no to the value for him to drive in a run in this matchup. Besides, our Covers Prop Projections have it as a five-star play.

Yordan Alvarez prop: Over 0.5 RBIs (+140 at bet365)

Prop bet #2: King for a day

We get a fun matchup at Globe Life Field as the Texas Rangers host the San Diego Padres. These teams split the first two games of this interleague matchup and the rubber match gets a great pitching matchup as Michael King toes the rubber against future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer.

While Scherzer’s return has given a boost to this Rangers rotation, I want to focus on King today. The right-hander was acquired from the Yankees in the Juan Soto deal and has become a key piece of this Pads rotation.

It was a bit of a slow start to the season for King, but he’s settled in, pitching to a 2.60 FIP and a 1.18 WHIP over his last 10 starts. The strikeout numbers have been especially impressive. King is striking out 30.1% of batters faced during that stretch, punching out six or more batters eight times. 

Now, the Rangers don’t strike out a ton and don’t have a ton of at-bats against King, but have struck out 26.9% of the time over 26 plate appearances. On top of that, the Rangers have struggled vs. right-handers this season, ranking 24th in wRC+. 

King also has one of the longer leashes in baseball, averaging 96.3 pitches per game, which gives him more opportunities to rack up the Ks. Getting Over 5.5 strikeouts at plus money looks like a solid value on this Fourth of July.

Michael King prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+105 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: No way, Heyward

The Arizona Diamondbacks are looking to take another series from the juggernaut Los Angeles Dodgers when Zac Gallen takes the ball in the finale of their three-game set on Thursday night. 

The D-Backs have kind of said, “hey, we’re still here,” in taking three of the last four matchups with the Dodgers, including last night’s 12-4 beatdown, and now hand the ball to their ace, Gallen.

The 28-year-old right-hander is making his second start since coming off the injured list and the first went very well, as Gallen shut out the Oakland A’s on one hit while striking out seven in six innings of work.

Overall, Gallen has been solid in 2024, pitching to a 3.73 expected ERA while striking out 26.6% of batters faced. He also has solid numbers against current Dodgers batters, limiting them to a .183 expected batting average and a .286 expected slugging over 103 plate appearances.

Jason Heyward is one Dodger in particular who isn’t looking forward to seeing Gallen. The veteran outfielder is just 1-for-10 in his career vs. Gallen, which is good for a .116 xBA. It also doesn’t help that Heyward is mired in an ugly slump.

Heyward is just three for his last 34 — a .088 batting average with a .356 OPS. He has hits in just two of his last 11 games, meaning the Under on Heyward’s hits prop looks like good value. Let’s back him to have another donut in the hit column against Gallen tonight.

Jason Heyward prop: Under 0.5 hits (+140 at bet365)