It’s a good day to bet RBI props and I’ve found a pair I love for today’s MLB action. So, let’s keep feasting on Jake Burger’s hot streak while Teoscar Hernandez is giving us too much value in tonight’s matchup against the Phillies.
MLB props for August 5
- Jake Burger Over 0.5 RBI (+190 at bet365)
- Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)
- Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 RBI (+230 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Jake Burger Over 0.5 RBI
Simply put. I am stunned we are still getting this price on Jake Burger to drive in a run when the Miami Marlins host the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. And you are going to think it’s even crazier when I break down this MLB pick for you.
Let’s start with Burger himself. The Marlins slugger is on a heater. He’s been solid since the start of July, hitting .294 with a .987 OPS, 10 home runs, and 20 RBI but he’s really turned it on lately going 12-35 (.385) with five dingers and nine RBI over his last nine games. He’s also driven in at least one run in seven of his last nine and the last six in a row overall.
A big reason for that is because Burger now gets to hit behind breakout rookie Xavier Edwards. The 24-year-old is hitting a ridiculous .396 with a .952 OPS since taking over as the Marlins’ everyday shortstop at the start of July. He’s also scored 17 runs over that 28-game stretch.
Then there is the pitching matchup. Burger, Edwards, and the rest of the Bottom Feeders lineup will face off against Reds’ veteran right-hander Nick Martinez.
While Martinez doesn’t give up hard hits, he gives up a lot of them, surrendering a .251 opponent expected batting average which is well below the league average. This will also be Martinez’s first start since May after spending most of the season as the Reds’ long reliever. As a starter his ERA balloons to 7.36 while surrendering a .348 batting average and a .905 OPS.
I like the Fish to keep thrashing and Burger to stay hot and I am backing him to drive in another run tonight.
Prop bet #2: Marcus Semien Over 1.5 Total Bases
Like many of the Texas Rangers, this season has been a bit of a disappointment for Marcus Semien. But the three-time All-Star appears to be getting his rhythm back and he and gets a great matchup when he and the Rangers take on the Houston Astros on Monday night.
Semien enters this matchup with a .244 average and a .722 OPS. Not exactly, the numbers you’d expect from the former Silver Slugger winner. That said, he has started to turn things around over the last month.
Semien is hitting .310 with a .926 OPS over his last 22 games and I like him to keep that going when he digs into the batter’s box against Astros starter Hunter Brown.
The 25-year-old Brown has been pitching very well since coming out of the All-Star break but he won’t be very happy to see Semien. That’s because the Rangers’ second baseman has absolutely owned Brown during his short MLB career.
Despite this being just Brown’s second big-league season, he has already faced Semien 17 times. Semien has a ridiculous 11 hits and a walk. That’s good for a .524 expected batting average and a .760 expected slugging. That’s what you call a tough out.
Semien has topped 1.5 total bases 13 times during this 22-game resurgence. At this price, in this matchup, there is value in him to top that number once again tonight.
Prop bet #3: Teoscar Hernandez Over 0.5 RBI
We get a potential National League Championship Series preview as the first-place Philadelphia Phillies head to Chavez Ravine to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The opener of this three-game set will feature a great pitching matchup as Aaron Nola toes the rubber against Tyler Glasnow and while runs may be hard to come by, they won’t be as hard as some of the odds suggest.
Specifically, I’m talking about Teoscar Hernandez to drive in a run which is on the board at a big +230. This seems a little long considering Teo is a guy who hits behind the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Freddie Freeman, and Will Smith. As a result, Hernandez enters this game as one of the NL’s premier run producers, hitting 23 home runs and knocking in 71 RBI.
He’s also carried his home run derby title into the second half of the season, hitting .305 with a .929 OPS with four home runs and nine RBI.
The matchup against Nola is an interesting one. He has strung together some good results, including holding this Dodgers team to one run on four hits (one from Hernandez) when they last met in early July but the right-hander still owns a .243 opponent expected batting average, which is just below league average.
So, you are able to string together some hits on him, and who better to do that than the guys at the top of this Dodgers lineup? At this price, I’m willing to bet Teo knocks one of those guys in.
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Today’s MLB games
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