It’s a busy Monday on the diamond, and the divisional and wild-card races are heating up in both leagues.
The action starts early, and our top MLB player props have you covered throughout the day with a trio of pitcher picks beginning with rolling St. Louis Cardinals righty Andre Pallante and wrapping up with struggling New York Mets veteran Luis Severino.
MLB props for September 2
- Andre Pallante Under 17.5 outs recorded (-135 at DraftKings)
- Osvaldo Bido Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130 at DraftKings)
- Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs (+130 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Andre Pallante Under 17.5 outs recorded
The Milwaukee Brewers check out as a daunting matchup for St. Louis Cardinals starter Andre Pallante. Milwaukee has mashed against right-handed pitchers all season with a fifth-ranked .325 wOBA and fourth-ranked .331 on-base percentage, and the Brew Crew are hot at the dish of late with a sixth-ranked .336 wOBA and MLB-high 12.0 BB% across the past two weeks.
Pallante has been the definition of serviceable for the Cards since joining the rotation in late May. He’s posted a solid 3.50 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 3.85 xFIP across 15 starts, but his 9.4 K-BB% is a discouraging mark, especially with how patient Milwaukee is at the plate. Additionally, Pallante’s reliance on pitching to contact has led to him recording 17 or fewer outs in four of his past six starts and will do so again in today's MLB picks.
Prop bet #2: Osvaldo Bido Under 5.5 strikeouts
Oakland Athletics starter Osvaldo Bido has benefited from a lot of luck going his way across his past seven starts, and his strikeout metrics are way up. He’s recorded 9.59 K/9 and a 26.8 K% while holding opposing hitters to a .180 batting average and .242 BABIP during the run, and his 3.11 ERA is well below his 4.18 xFIP.
Bido recorded 7.85 K/9 and a 20.3 K% with a 3.44 ERA and 5.79 xFIP across his first eight appearances of the season, and he sports a career 4.59 xFIP as a starter. Opposing hitters are set to have more success against the 28-year-old righty, and the Seattle Mariners are a ripe opponent to cash in with their own statistical correction ahead.
Seattle sports the fifth-lowest BABIP (.267) while ranking second with an 11.7 BB% across its past 12 games. This market has also already moved considerably to the Under, and this is an outlier favorable price through DraftKings.
Prop bet #3: Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs
After firing a complete game with a season-high 113 pitches against the Miami Marlins on Aug. 17, New York Mets starter Luis Severino has completed just five and 4 2/3 innings in each of his past two outings. He has also been squared up and sports a 4.66 ERA and 1.86 WHIP while allowing a 48.1% hard-hit rate.
The Boston Red Sox are also positioned to snap out of their recent offensive funk with their .236 BABIP across the past week ranking third lowest in the bigs. Boston’s 2.5 BB% during the slump is also unsustainably low, and I anticipate the Red Sox improving in both metrics with Severino struggling.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
