It may be a college football Saturday, but we can't forget about MLB player props, and with all 30 teams in action, there's no shortage of value to be found.
My favorite plays target a couple of star players who have recently returned from long stints on the injured list and are starting to heat up.
Here are my MLB picks for Saturday, Sept. 14.
MLB props for September 14
- Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs (+125 at FanDuel)
- Tucker Over 1.5 total bases (+120 at bet365)
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI (+170 at bet365)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Luis Severino Under 17.5 outs recorded
It has been a season full of ups and downs for New York Mets starter Luis Severino, and he’s started September off on a high note. But can he keep that going in a tough matchup against the National League-East-leading Philadelphia Phillies?
Severino enters this game having allowed just two earned runs on 11 hits over 13 2-3 innings over his last two starts, and he needed that because the right-hander was coming off an inconsistent August.
Severino pitched a complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on Aug. 17 but that game was sandwiched by two on each side in which he didn’t last more than five innings. He had a 4.08 ERA while surrendering a .811 OPS over those five starts.
His advanced numbers scream out “league-average” pitcher. Severino ranks in the 54th percentile in expected ERA and the 44th in opponent expected batting average.
So, while Severino has worked deep into a lot of starts, when you pick your spots with him, there can be value when playing the Under on his outs-recorded prop, and I think this matchup against the Phillies is one of those spots.
For starters, this Phillies lineup is just tough; there aren’t many places for a pitcher to take a batter off. Philly ranks eighth in batting average and ninth in OPS vs. right-handed pitchers, and they are starting to really roll. The Phillies rank fifth and third in those categories over the last two weeks.
Severiono’s outs-recorded prop is sitting at 17.5, and while he’s gone Over that in his last two starts, he went Under in six of his previous seven. Our Covers Prop Projections have him at just 15.4 outs today. That makes the Under at this plus money a five-star play.
Prop bet #2: Kyle Tucker Over 1.5 Total Bases
Getting Kyle Tucker back for the stretch run is big for the Houston Astros. Tucker missed nearly three months with a leg injury, but the three-time All-Star has knocked off the rust pretty quickly.
Tucker has hits in four of his last five games, where he has a .294 average including a double and two RBI. He has yet to go yard since his return, but I’m betting we see some more pop when he digs into the batter’s box tonight against Los Angeles Angels starter Tyler Anderson.
Anderson enters this matchup with a 4.15 expected ERA while surrendering a .242 opponent expected batting average. Those rank in the 43rd and 51st percentile among MLB pitchers, respectively.
And while you may say Tucker hasn’t fared the best when going against left-handed pitchers this season, he loves facing Anderson. Tucker is 7-12 in his career vs. Anderson with a double, two triples and a dinger. That’s good for a .356 expected batting average and a .700 expected slugging.
That’s enough to have me firing on the Over for Tucker’s total bases, which is sitting at decent plus money.
Prop bet #3: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 0.5 RBI
The San Diego Padres are well-positioned to make a deep run in the postseason. They have solid starting pitching, a great bullpen, and the lineup is balanced from top to bottom.
And now Fernando Tatis Jr. is back, and he’s bashing baseballs again. Tatis was playing well before a leg injury cost him two months on the IL and his return has given this lineup a big boost.
Tatis has hits in six of his last eight games, good for a .273 average with a .900 OPS. That includes two doubles, two dingers, and seven RBI. I’m betting Tatis has another productive night at the plate when he digs in against San Francisco Giants rookie starter Mason Black.
And life in the big leagues has been a little rough for the 24-year-old right-hander. Black got called up for four starts back in May where he pitched to an 8.79 ERA and gave up a 1.060 OPS and was sent back down the minors.
Black got called back up at the end of August and has made two starts and not much has changed, as he’s been tagged for six runs on 10 hits over 9 2/3 innings.
So, it’s kind of interesting to see Tatis’ RBI prop with a price like this. Not only does he have six RBI in his last three games, he’s also been a much better hitter when facing right-handed pitching this season, getting to them for a .293 average and an .873 OPS.
Tatis Over 0.5 RBI against an inexperienced right-hander at +170. Sign me up every day of the week.
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Today’s MLB games
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