Day 2 of the Wild Card Round is here and while four teams are hunting for that first postseason win, we are hunting for value in the form of MLB player props.
Find out why I believe Rhys Hoskins’ postseason experience will pay off for the Milwaukee Brewers and more in my MLB picks for Wednesday, October 2.
MLB props for October 2
- Lugo Over 4.5 hits allowed (-115 at DraftKings)
- Hoskin Over 0.5 RBI (+210 at bet365)
- Musgrove Under 1.5 earned runs allowed (+130 at DraftKings)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Seth Lugo Over 4.5 hits allowed
I am not a believer in Seth Lugo. Yes, I know he has a 3.00 ERA and the Kansas City Royals have won a lot of baseball games with him on the mound this season, but the advanced numbers keep saying a regression is coming. So, I’m prepared to die on this Lugo fade, even in Game 2 of this Wild Card matchup against the Baltimore Orioles.
Lugo has never been a “stuff” guy, which has continued this season. He ranks in the 21st percentile in fastball velocity and 39th in strikeout rate. Instead, he used a large array of pitches to keep hitters off balance and record outs.
However, while pitching to contact is sort of the expectation for Lugo, he’s been a little lucky this season that more of that contact hasn’t resulted in hits and runs.
Lugo’s expected ERA sits at 3.72, which ranks in the 61st percentile, while his opponent expected batting average of .245 is in the 43rd percentile.
Baltimore hitters struggled in the second half, but they’ve done relatively well against right-handed pitchers for the majority of the year, ranking fifth in OPS and fourth in wRC+.
The Orioles also have had plenty of success against Lugo. Current O’s batters are a combined 12-for-33 with seven extra base hits vs. Lugo. That’s good for a .351 xBA and a .823 xSLG.
While pitchers generally have a shorter leash in the postseason, Lugo has been one of the biggest innings eaters for the Royals this season. With a shaky bullpen in tow, I expect K.C. to allow him to work, giving the Orioles the opportunities needed to tally those knocks and send Lugo Over his hits allowed total of 4.5.
This is a number he went Over in nine of his last 14 full starts.
Prop bet #2: Rhys Hoskins Over 0.5 RBI
It was a rough season for Milwaukee Brewers first baseman Rhys Hoskins. But he also brings plenty of postseason experience to the table for the Brew Crew, and I’m betting that pays off in tonight’s Game 2 against the New York Mets.
Hoskins’ first season in Milwaukee did not go as planned. He ended the year with a career-low .214 batting average and .722 OPS. Now, we can give Hoskins a little leeway after missing all of 2023 with a torn ACL. And he still brought the power, hitting 26 home runs and recording 82 RBI.
He also started to turn things around down the stretch. Hoskins put up a .293 average with a .994 OPS over his final 14 games of the season, including three doubles, three dingers, and 11 RBI.
The Brewers first baseman also gets a pretty good matchup in Game 2, going against Mets left-hander Sean Manaea.
Manaea has been a slightly above-average pitcher this season, ranking in the 58th percentile in expected ERA and the 68th percentile in opponent expected batting average. He probably isn’t too happy to see the Brewers again so soon after they tagged him for six runs (five earned) on seven hits and a homer in just 3 2/3 innings just back on September 27.
And the player who hit that dinger? Rhys Hoskins. In fact, Hoskins has two home runs in six career at-bats against Manaea. That’s good for a .282 xBA and a .928 xSLG.
With Brew Crew teammates Brice Turang and Williams Contreras also having success against Manaea in the past, I like Hoskins’ chances to come up with guys on base. And at this price, my MLB picks are more than happy to back him to drive in a run.
Prop bet #3: Joe Musgrove Under 1.5 earned runs allowed
I think the Atlanta Braves’ issues hitting against right-handed pitching are finally going to catch up with them in this Wild Card matchup with the San Diego Padres, who employ a stable full of excellent ones.
We saw it last night when Michael King dominated the Braves lineup, shutting them out across seven innings while allowing just five hits and striking out 12. Next up, it’s Joe Musgrove’s turn.
It was a tale of two seasons for the veteran right-hander. Musgrove struggled to start the season, pitching to a 5.66 ERA while surrendering a .305 batting average to opponents over his first 10 starts. Then an elbow injury put him on the IL for roughly two and a half months.
But he has looked like a completely different pitcher since coming off the IL. Musgrove has a 2.15 ERA over his last nine outings, limiting opponents to a .195 batting average while striking out more than a batter an inning.
That’s not a good thing for a Braves team that ranked 18th in batting average, 17th in OPS, and 19th in wRC+ while striking out at the 10th highest rate vs. right-handed pitching this season.
They also don’t have a great track record against Musgrove. Current Braves batters have combined for a .224 expected batting average and a .311 expected slugging in their careers vs. Musgrove.
It may be a low number, but I’m taking Musgrove to stay Under 1.5 earned runs allowed. That’s something he’s done in six of the nine starts since his return. Combine that with the Braves struggles, a potential quick hook, and the price, and that makes this bet very worthwhile.
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Today’s MLB games
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