The Milwaukee Brewers have a 10-game lead atop the NL Central but Willy Adames continues to fly under the radar despite sizzling play since the start of July.
My favorite MLB player props for today are backing the Brewers shortstop against a pitcher he has a history of dominating.
See why I'm also betting on Bobby Witt Jr. and fading Yu Darvish alongside Adames on today's slate.
MLB props for September 4
- Witt Over 1.5 TB (-130 at bet365)
- Adames Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110 at DraftKings)
- Darvish Under 4.5 Ks (+116 at FanDuel)
Today’s best MLB props
Prop bet #1: Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 total bases
After putting together a strong sophomore season in 2023, Bobby Witt Jr. has raised his game to a whole other level this year. He leads the majors in batting average (.340) and ranks second with 340 total bases in 140 games.
Today, Witt and the Kansas City Royals host the Cleveland Guardians who are sending Ben Lively to the mound. Lively has a 3.92 ERA in 24 starts, with that number surging to 5.40 in six outings since the beginning of August. Lively seldom makes batters miss and he gets hit hard, ranking in the bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity and the bottom 25th percentile in hard-hit rate.
Witt has excellent reverse platoon splits, slugging .627 against righties like Lively. He also slashes an incredible .387/.440/.697 at home, where the spacious dimensions at Kauffman Stadium allow him to leg out doubles and triples.
Prop bet #2: Willy Adames Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI
Willy Adames is slugging .474 and leads the Milwaukee Brewers with 100 RBI while ranking second with 83 runs through 139 games. The shortstop has been red-hot since the start of July, slashing .294/.362/.574 with 46 RBI and 40 runs in 55 games.
Adames is at home today against struggling St. Louis Cardinals hurler Sonny Gray. Gray has a 5.62 ERA with an OBA of .262 in 11 starts on the road. He also has a 5.46 ERA with a .275 OBA in his last 11 starts overall.
Adames has gone 5-for-12 at the plate with six walks against Gray in his career and he's poised to be one of our top MLB picks on today's slate.
Prop bet #3: Yu Darvish Under 4.5 strikeouts
Typically, San Diego Padres right-hander Yu Darvish would be poised for a productive game at home against a Detroit Tigers side that strikes out at the 10th-highest rate in MLB. However, Darvish hasn't pitched in the majors since May 29 due to multiple injuries and a family matter that resulted in a stint on the restricted list.
The 38-year-old came off the restricted list in late August before returning to the IL to finish his minor-league rehab for an elbow ailment. Even before Darvish ended up on the IL, he wasn't going deep into games, which resulted in him racking up fewer than five punchouts in four of his previous eight starts.
Darvish threw 66 pitches in a simulated game against minor leaguers last Friday, and he won't pitch deep enough into this game to go Over his strikeouts tonight.
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Today’s MLB games
Here is the schedule and MLB odds for today’s matchups:
