We’ve got a fully stacked baseball card on Tuesday, as all 30 MLB teams will be on the diamond. That means a cornucopia of options when it comes to the player prop odds market.
Tonight, we should see a ton of strikeouts when the Marlins take on the Phillies. But which starter to back? Corey Seager stayed hot in the Rangers’ series opener against the Royals. And Mookie Betts gets a juicy matchup against Giants starter Alex Wood.
Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Tuesday, April 11.
MLB props for April 11
Picks made on 4/11/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Jesus saves
We could be in for a ton of strikeouts when the Miami Marlins visit the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday night. That’s because Jesus Luzardo will toe the rubber against Aaron Nola, and the only team with a higher strikeout rate than the Marlins or Phillies so far this season is the San Francisco Giants.
The Phillies ace hasn’t had the most strikeouts early on, but he has dominated the Marlins the last few seasons. However, today, I want to focus on his counterpart.
Luzardo had a fully healthy spring and he looks fantastic. The Marlins’ 25-year-old left-hander uses an electric fastball that averages 97.3 mph mixed with a wipeout slider to dominate opposing batters. Luzardo has allowed just one run on seven hits while striking out 15 over 12 2/3 innings of work this season. That includes racking up 10 punchouts against the Minnesota Twins in his previous start.
Luzardo also made a start late in 2022 against the Phillies where he gave up two runs on four hits while striking out nine hitters over seven innings of work. I’m backing Luzardo to continue his strong start to the season and have a similar result, taking the Over on his strikeout total.
Jesus Luzardo Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-122)
Night moves
Corey Seager came through for us in a big way yesterday. The Texas Rangers shortstop stayed hot, going 3-4 with a dinger and a walk in yesterday’s win over the Kansas City Royals, cashing the Over 1.5 on his total bases prop for the fourth consecutive game.
And for me, riding hot streaks is early-season baseball betting 101. So, that means we are going back to the well with Seager’s total bases in Game 2 against the Royals.
Seager now has an extra-base hit in four consecutive games and is hitting .500 with a 1.560 OPS over that stretch. Tonight, he gets a juicy matchup against Kansas City starter Jordan Lyles.
The veteran right-hander looks like nothing more than an innings-eater for the Royals this season. Lyles has surrendered seven runs (six earned) on 13 hits so far this season but has also pitched into the sixth inning in each of his first two starts.
Seager is a career .295 hitter when facing right-handers, and while he only has limited at-bats against Lyles, he's 2-7 with a double. At plus money, it’s hard to say no to this Seager prop once again tonight.
Corey Seager Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Best Betts
Not surprisingly, the Los Angeles Dodgers' stacked lineup is doing what it does best early on in this MLB season, and announced its presence in the opener of its three-game series with the San Francisco Giants, hammering them 9-1 at Oracle Park on Monday night.
The Dodgers started the scoring early thanks to a first-inning home run from Mookie Betts. The Dodgers’ All-Star outfielder is starting to get his timing down. He's now hitting .353 with a 1.068 OPS, which includes three extra-base hits over his last four games. And Betts will have a great opportunity to keep that going in Game 2 against the Giants.
That’s because the Giants hand the ball to former Dodger Alex Wood. The lefty is coming off a season where he pitched to a 5.10 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. Tonight, Wood is making his second start of the season. His first lasted just three innings, where he allowed three runs (one earned) on six hits and two walks.
Betts feasted on lefties last season. The former MVP hit .308 with a .983 OPS vs. southpaws in 2022 and he’s definitely had Wood’s number when they’ve faced off. Betts has collected nine hits in 18 career at-bats (.500) against Wood, including five extra-base hits and three dingers.
Betts has topped 1.5 total bases in four of his last six games. I’m betting he takes advantage of this matchup against Wood and goes Over once again.
Mookie Betts Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-110)
