Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: A's Continue Struggling on Mound

We're three weeks into the MLB season and there are still a ton of markets to find plus expected value, despite the oddsmakers tightening up some.

We have all-day MLB action starting with an afternoon game in the Bronx where I’m targeting and pitching Over prop and crossing the country as I continue to fade the Oakland rotation. 

Here are my three best MLB prop plays for Saturday, April 15.

MLB props for April 15

• Mahle Over 15.5 outs
• Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases
• Fujinami Over 2.5 earned runs

Picks made on 4/15/2023 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Rolling with Mahle

Twins starter Tyler Mahle will get the Yankees this afternoon in the Bronx and his Over markets project well vs. a New York lineup that's striking out at a 25% clip (4th), hitting .240 (20th), and getting on base at a .306 (26th) rate. Obviously, there’s some pop in the order but pitchers are getting deep vs. the Yankees and piling up punchouts when doing so. 

So far in the series, both Minnesota starters have recorded at least 18 outs in Joe Ryan and Louie Varland. Varland went six innings yesterday, struck out eight, and needed just 83 pitches, while Ryan recorded 21 outs and struck out 10 on 93 pitches. 

That bodes well for Mahle and his modest 15.5 out total that can be found at plus money. It’s an afternoon game, meaning we could see a weaker New York lineup, the wind is blowing in from right field at Yankee Stadium, and Mahle is a pitcher to trust in this spot.

The right-hander has made two starts this season and is coming off an 18-out performance vs. a loaded Houston lineup where he also struck out six batters. He’s gone from 83 to 90 pitches over his two starts and is averaging 15.8 pitches per inning meaning this Over 15.5 outs could cash at 84 pitches with that average.

THE BAT is projecting a higher pitch count today at 97 pitches, 17.4 outs, and 6.61 strikeouts. His Over 5.5 Ks can be found as long as +120 and also projects well here but I’m rolling with Over 15.5 outs today in the Bronx. 

Tyler Mahle Prop: Over 15.5 outs (+105)

Solid gold

Some days, the books just give you a great price on a total-base Over for a reigning MVP that doesn't require much research when hitting the Over. Today is one of those days.

Paul Goldschmidt Over 1.5 total bases can be found as long as +135 and as short as -110, but there’s not a chance I’m taking a guy slashing .333/.460/.490 and has one of the best wOBA in baseball to not get at least two bases. 

He’s been held hitless just three times over his 14 games this season, has hit Roansy Contreras over a small sample (2-for-5), and gets decent hitting weather at Busch Stadium, with mid-70s temps, 60% humidity, and double-digit winds blowing out to left field. 

Contreras got roughed up in his last start vs. the Astros, where he gave up seven runs on nine hits. He’s also not missing bats, with an 8% swinging-strike rate or 13 of his 161 pitches. That’s bad news when he’s also giving up a lot of hard contact as well — 90 mph average exit velocity on his fastball. The Pittsburgh starter has also seen his velocity fall slightly, as his average fastball last season was 95.6 mph while it’s sitting at 94.1 this season.

Goldschmidt is hitting fewer groundballs this season, increased his line-drive% substantially, and ranks in the Top-5 percent in hardhit%. It’s a solid matchup for the right-handed hitter who also has the hitting environment and price in his favor for this Over. 

Paul Goldschmidt Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+135)

Auto bet

I’m picking on the Oakland starting pitching until I physically can’t. Through 14 games, the Athletics have a 10.22 ERA from their starting pitchers. The next-worst team is at 6.72. It’s a historically bad group that the management is happy to send out and take a beating. The hook isn’t quick for these guys either as even yesterday’s starter, James Kaprielian, logged 95 pitches with seven walks and six earned runs. 

The New York Mets’ offense has awoken from its slumber thanks to a 17-run outing in the series opener and now faces Shintaro Fujinami, who has just 6.2 innings pitched over two starts with seven walks and 13 earned runs.

The Oakland rookie has a 19.4% BB% (Bottom-6% in the league) and his fastball and splitter (63% of his pitches) have an average exit velocity of 92 mph. His command is way off and when he does find the zone, he’s getting tagged. 

We can bank on the walks today as batters are picking up his ball easily — the right-hander has the lowest chase rate in all of baseball. It’s going to be another long day for an Oaklnad starter and paying almost no vig on his Over 2.5 earned runs is an easy decision. 

Shintaro Fujinami Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs (-105)

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