Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Bryant Lowers the Boom on Bucs

Thanks to a pair of doubleheaders, there is a bases loaded amount of MLB action on the diamond today with a whopping 17 games on the schedule.

Tonight, I start by highlighting a Red Sox starter with command issues. Kris Bryant was the only Rockies player who could say he had a good game last night, and he appears to be in line for another. And while Ronald Acuna Jr. is still crushing baseballs, we’re going to keep riding that hot streak in tonight’s matchup against the Padres.

Here are my best MLB player props for Tuesday, April 18.

MLB props for April 18

• Sale Over 1.5 walks
• Bryant Over 1.5 hits
• Acuna 2+ total bases

Picks made on 4/18/2023 at 2:05 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: No solace for Sale

I think it’s fair to say at this point that Chris Sale’s best days as a starting pitcher are behind him. The Boston Red Sox starter's 2023 campaign is off to a rough beginning, and he hasn’t given us much reason to think he’ll turn it around when he takes the ball against the Minnesota Twins on Tuesday night.

Sale has been rocked through three starts this season, giving up 15 earned runs on 18 hits in just 12 innings of work. Part of Sale’s problem has been his control. He’s either finding too much of the plate with his slider or sinker, or he can’t locate his fastball.

So not only has he been getting rocked, but he’s been giving up free passes as well. Sale has given up seven walks in 12 innings this year. His 5.3 walks per nine innings are one of the worst marks among starters in the MLB, and he ranks in the 35th percentile in terms of walk rate.

The Twins haven’t walked a ton this season, but to be fair, they’ve gone against some very strong starters over the last week or so. Sale has issued at least two walks in each of his first three starts. The Twins will draw at least two more in this matchup.

Chris Sale Prop: Over 1.5 walks (-115)

Prop bet #2: Hits mounting up for Bryant

Honestly, I sometimes forget Kris Bryant plays for the Colorado Rockies. But after his first season in Colorado was mired with injuries, it looks like Bryant is settling in nicely.

The Rockies third baseman is hitting .323 with a .857 OPS through 16 games this season, and he’s been even more locked in recently. Bryant is 9-for-25 (.360) with a 1.025 OPS over his last six games. And while the Rockies were embarrassed 14-3 by the Pittsburgh Pirates last night, Bryant was one of the few Rockies who could say he wasn’t, going 3-for-4 while swatting his first dinger at Coors Field this year.

He’ll have a great chance to stay hot when he digs in against Pirates starter Vince Velasquez. The right-hander's first season in Pittsburgh has gotten off to a bit of a rocky start. He's been tagged for eight runs on 11 hits in just 7 1/3 innings of work. He's also surrendered more walks (five) than strikeouts (four).

Bryant has also had some success in this matchup. He’s gone 3-for-6 with a double in his career vs. Velasquez. Bryant has three multi-hit games over his last five contests. I’m backing him get a couple of knocks here tonight at nice plus money.

Kris Bryant Prop: Over 1.5 hits (+175)

Prop bet #3: Unbelievable Acuna

Ronald Acuna Jr. came through for us in a big way last night, easily cashing the Over on 1.5 total bases by going 3-for-5 with a double in the Atlanta Braves' 2-0 victory over the San Diego Padres. We’re riding Acuna’s hot streak in Game 2 of this series.

Acuna looks like the guy he was before injuring his knee in 2021, smashing baseballs like not many can. The Braves outfielder leads the MLB in hits and runs scored, and he’s hitting .389 with a 1.047 OPS for the season. But he’s been even better lately, hitting .515 with a 1.276 OPS over the last eight games.

Tonight, he faces off against the Padres’ Blake Snell. Snell is another big-name pitcher off to a slow start in 2023. The left-hander has surrendered 10 runs on 18 hits through 13 innings over three starts. That’s good for an ugly 7.07 expected ERA and a .299 opponent expected opponent batting average. He’s also giving up a .300 batting average and a .996 OPS to right-handed hitters so far this season.

And even though the sample size isn’t huge, Acuna is 2-for-5 with a double and a dinger in his career against Snell. Acuna keeps swinging a hot stick.

Ronald Acuna Prop: 2+ total bases (+135) 

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