Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Happ Hurts Dogers Hurlers

It’s a light day of action on the diamond, with just seven games on the MLB betting board but that doesn’t mean there isn’t plenty of value to be found in the player prop markets.

Today, I break down how Colorado’s starter struggles will continue when Ryan Feltner takes the ball. The wind is gusting out at Wrigley tonight, so who’s hitting a dinger? And Kodai Senga and his now-famous “Ghost Fork” continue their west-coast tour when the Mets visit the Giants.

Here are my best MLB player prop picks for Thursday, April 20.

MLB props for April 20

• Feltner SGP
• Happ HR
• Senga Over 6.5 Ks

Picks made on 4/20/2023 at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

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Hit the Felt

It looks like preventing runs will be a problem all season long for the Colorado Rockies, and tonight’s starter, Ryan Feltner, is no exception. Feltner has struggled early on and things won’t get any easier when he takes the ball against the Philadelphia Phillies.

Feltner has been lit up during the first three starts of his 2023 campaign. The right-hander has been tagged for 13 runs on 15 hits and 11 walks in just 13 1/3 innings of work. He even allowed three runs on six hits while walking three more in just five innings against the lowly Washington Nationals.

That's resulted in an ugly 8.78 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP, and now he’ll have to stare across at a dangerous Phillies lineup. Philadelphia ranks first in the MLB in batting average, OPS, and fourth in wRC+ when facing right-handed pitching this season.

Feltner has made one start against the Phillies in his career, and it didn’t go smoothly. Philly got to him for four runs on seven hits and two walks over five innings in a meeting last April.

This matchup is set up poorly for Feltner, so unsurprisingly, a lot of his props supporting that are heavily juiced. So, let’s get fancy with a little same-game parlay. You can get Feltner to surrender Over 2.5 runs and issue Over 1.5 walks at a much nicer +165 — something he's done in all three of his starts this season.

Ryan Feltner Prop: Over 2.5 earned runs + Over 1.5 walks allowed same-game parlay (+165 at bet365)

What's Happ-ening

We’ve got a meeting of surprising National League teams on Thursday night. The Cubs, who are off to a terrific 11-6 start this season, host the Dodgers, who come into this one with a somewhat shocking 9-10 record.

And we could be in for some fireworks when these two open a four-game set at Wrigley Field tonight. Dodgers prospect Michael Grove will face off against the Cubs' Jameson Taillon. That pitching matchup, combined with expected winds of 20 miles per hour blowing out to center, means the total for this one is a high 10.5.

I think that means we’re going to see some balls leave the Friendly Confines tonight, and my favorite player to hit a home run is Chicago’s Ian Happ at +450.

The Cubs outfielder is locked in right now. He’s 10-26 (.385) with a dinger and four doubles over his last six games — good for a 1.068 OPS. For the season, he ranks in the 88th percentile or better in expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and max exit velocity. 

Happ is also crushing fastballs for a .375 expected batting average and a .692 expected slugging percentage. That will play well tonight against Grove.

The young Dodgers right-hander uses his fastball nearly 50% of the time despite the fact opponents are getting to it for a .343 xBA and a .625 xSlugging. Now, Grove is coming off an impressive outing against this same Cubs team in L.A. back on April 15, but it will be interesting to see if he can carry that type of performance with him on the road.

At +450 it’s worth backing Happ to lock in on a fastball and go yard tonight.

Ian Happ Prop: Over 0.5 home runs (+450)

Senga towers

Kodia Senga and his now famous “Ghost Fork” continues its West Coast tour when the New York Mets visit the San Francisco Giants on Thursday night.

Senga’s forkball already looks like one of the most unhittable pitches in baseball. Through three starts, opponents have a ridiculously low .033 expected batting average and a 61.5% whiff rate when facing the right-hander's devastating offspeed pitch.

Mix that with a fastball that averages 96.1 miles per hour, and Senga has been racking up the strikeouts. Senga has punched out 21 batters over 16 innings of work this season. That’s good for a 30% strikeout rate, which puts him in the 82nd percentile in the MLB. And he’ll have a great chance to keep sitting down batters tonight.

That’s because the Giants have begun this season striking out like it’s going out of style. Their 11.1 strikeouts per game are the most in the Big Leagues and by a sizeable margin to boot. They also own the highest K-rate in baseball when it comes to facing right-handed pitchers this season.

Senga’s strikeout total for this matchup is on the board at 6.5. He’s eclipsed that number in two of his three starts and with the Over getting decent plus money Senga and his Ghost Fork are a great bet to go Over once again.

Kodai Senga Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (+120)

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