With a full slate of games on the baseball schedule today, the MLB player prop market is looking ripe with a ton of value on the board for those willing to dig through the MLB odds.
Today, I’m backing a forgotten pitcher in Milwaukee, buying the Soto dip, and fading the Giants... who have been awful vs. left-handed pitching this season.
Here are my three best free MLB picks for Saturday, April 22.
MLB props for April 22
Picks made on 4/22/2023 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Best MLB bets today
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Prop bet #1: Slain by southpaws
The San Francisco Giants have quietly been an offense to fade — especially against left-handers. They strike out at a league-high 27.5% rate — and that number jumps to 30% vs. southpaws. The Giants are also hitting just .205 (25th), with a .574 OPS (29th) against LHP, and only the Tigers have a worse wRC+ vs. lefties.
Enter New York Mets southpaw David Peterson, who has recorded at least 17 outs in two straight starts (vs. the Dodgers and Padres). He threw 94 pitches in his last outing, getting 18 total outs AND still gave up six runs — that’s a sizeable leash.
He’ll have a much easier matchup today and Oracle Park should help him keep the ball in the yard (which has been an issue for Peterson) as today’s setting is the fourth-best park in terms of minimizing home runs.
Catcher Tomas Nido is also helping these projections, as the 29-year-old backstop had the fifth-best strike rate in baseball last season, per Baseball Savant.
THE BAT is projecting 99 pitches, 17 outs, and 6.32 punchouts. His over 5.5 strikeouts (at -115) is also in play here, but I’m taking the outs.
David Peterson Prop: Over 15.5 outs (-105)
Prop bet #2: Miley the market mover
Wade Miley is not a sexy name for production, but that usually means he’s undervalued in the betting markets.
The Milwaukee Brewers lefty threw just 37 innings a season ago but has come out of the gates with a ton of consistency, delivering two scoreless starts through three turns to begin the season.
He’s given up just 14 hits through 18 innings and has seen decent offenses in the Mets and Padres. Miley has also struck out 14 batters, against just three walks, so the command is there and he isn’t wasting a ton of pitches on Ks and free passes — which is great for his Over 17.5 outs.
The starter has averaged just 86 pitches per start but has been efficient, with 18 innings worth of outs and a pitch count that should be a little longer in his fourth start.
The Boston Red Sox have been a slightly above-average offense to begin the season but plenty of that production has come at home in Fenway Park, which has been very good for hitters early in the season, and Boston has just a 94 wRC+ on the road this season.
This market opened at 16.5 but is still a play at 17.5 at -105, with some books shading the Over 17.5 as high as -142 at the time of writing. THE BAT is projecting 100 pitches for Miley with 19 total outs, and he’ll also have one of the best pitcher umpires behind the plate in Doug Eddings.
Wade Miley Prop: Over 17.5 outs (-105)
Prop bet #3: Soto surge coming
The San Diego Padres lineup just got a little harder to navigate with the return of Fernando Tatis Jr. He’ll be playing his third game tonight vs. Merrill Kelly but it’s the player behind him in the order I’m looking at for an Over total bases play.
Juan Soto is not posting great numbers nearly a month into the season, with his .176 average well off of his career number of .283, but the balls he is putting into play have been hit hard: Seven of his 13 hits have gone for extra bases (four home runs) and his .184 BABIP is indicating a lot of bad luck so far.
Soto sits in the Top 8% of hard-hit percentage and in the Top 12% of barrel percentage, xSLG, and xwOBA. A spike in production is coming — and when it does we won’t be getting his Over 1.5 total bases for +125 anymore.
Manny Machado is currently -135 to collect two or more bases, so the extra points on Soto are too many. It’s not the greatest matchup vs. Kelly, who Soto is 2-for-8 against over his career, but the production is coming from the No.2 hitter, who continues to hit the ball hard but hasn’t been rewarded for it.
Juan Soto Prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+125)
