Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Nothing Phases Nootbaar

Prop bet #1: Javier fries some fish

This season hasn’t gone quite as expected for Houston Astros starter Cristian Javier. The right-hander was coming off a 2022 campaign where he looked unhittable at times and was striking out batters like there was no tomorrow. However, that hasn’t been the case in 2023.

That said, Javier has started to show some flashes of the guy he was last season and he can show us more of that when he takes the mound vs. the Miami Marlins tonight. 

Javier hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his last five starts, which have all lasted a minimum of five innings. But more importantly, he has limited opponents to a .174 batting average and is striking out more than a batter an inning over that stretch.

Javier should have some success tonight against the Marlins, who have issues when facing right-handed pitchers. Miami ranks 23rd in OPS and 22nd in wRC+ when facing righties this season.

As a result, I like Javier’s chances of working deeper into this game. While it may not feel like it at times, the Astros right-hander has a relatively long leash. Javier averages 93.7 pitches per star. When Javier gets in trouble it’s usually because of walks (50th percentile in walk rate). 

Luckily, the Marlins are one of the worst teams in baseball when it comes to earning free passes vs. right-handed pitchers, ranking 27th in BB%.

Throw in an even money price tag, and I really like Javier to go Over his outs-recorded prop which is sitting at 16.5, a number he’s gone Over in 12 of his 22 starts this season.

Cristian Javier prop: Over 16.5 outs recorded (+100 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Targeting Atlanta's depth

I know this has been said time and again. But the Atlanta Braves lineup is silly. Yes, Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Austin Riley, and Sean Murphy are all studs. But it’s their depth that makes this lineup truly dangerous. There is just nowhere for a starter to take a breath.

Orlando Arcia is a perfect example. The Braves probably wouldn’t care if their shortstop hit much more than .200 if he provided great defense at a premium position (he does), but he’s also giving them quality at-bats at the bottom of the lineup.

Arcia is hitting .290 with a solid .801 OPS and he’ll get a great matchup when he digs in tonight to face off against struggling New York Yankees starter Luis Severino.

Now, Arcia had a bit of a rough weekend in New York vs. the Mets but I’m not too worried about that. Arcia was hitting .373 with a 1.088 OPS in his 15 games prior to that series and now gets to face off against a floundering Severino.

The self-proclaimed worst pitcher in the game is trying to live up to that billing, apparently. The right-hander has had a rough go of things all season long, but it’s been particularly putrid since the start of July. Severino has been lit up for an 11.71 ERA and a 1.200 opponent OPS over his last seven appearances (six starts).

With Arcia handling right-handers well all season long (.277 batting average) — and at plus-money like this — it’s a solid wager to back him to rebound and go Over his total bases tonight, which he had done in nine of 15 games prior to the Mets series.

Orlando Arcia prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+165)

Prop bet #3: Livin' Lars

Here is your daily reminder that Lars Nootbaar is awesome and is absolutely killing it in the second half of the season.

The St. Louis Cardinals outfielder has definitely been a bright spot in what has otherwise been a down year for the team. Nootbaar is hitting .280 with a .830 OPS this season but has taken his game to the next level in the second half.

Nootbaar is hitting for a .347 average with a 1.085 OPS over 26 games since coming out of the All-Star break. That includes 13 extra-base hits and more walks (16) than strikeouts (15). Simply put, the dude is locked in.

Tonight, he’ll have a great opportunity to keep that going as he and the Cards face off against Spenser Watkins and the lowly Oakland A’s. Watkins is making his first MLB appearance of the season after making 30 starts for the Baltimore Orioles over the last two campaigns. He has a career 5.85 ERA and a .832 opponent OPS.

It seems unlikely that Watkins lasts more than a handful of innings considering the situation. That should mean plenty of work for an Oakland bullpen that ranks dead last in xFIP.

Nootbaar has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball in the second half and I like him to keep raking in this matchup against the A’s. Take the Over on his 1.5 total bases at decent plus money. A number he’s eclipsed in seven of his last 12 games. 

Lars Nootbar prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+120)