Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Mountcastle Makes Blue Jays Pay Again

Prop bet #1: Padres break Freeland

The Colorado Rockies sold off some of their only major league bats prior to yesterday’s trade deadline, and the team is now just counting down the clock on the 2023 season. That means starters like Kyle Freeland will be asked to eat innings to get through the last two months as quickly as possible.

I expect that to happen tonight when Freeland takes the mound against the visiting San Diego Padres.

Despite being two games below .500, the Padres were buyers yesterday, if you count Rich “Dick Mountain” Hill and Ji-Man Choi as buying, and are hoping to be more consistent at the plate in the season's final two months. But one thing they have done well all season is hit left-handed pitchers.

San Diego ranks 11th in batting average, and fifth in both OPS and wRC+ when facing southpaws this season. So, they should be looking forward to today’s matchup vs. Freeland.

The 30-year-old left-hander is pitching to a 5.37 expected ERA and is striking out just 14.1% of the batters he has faced. That’s in the Bottom 3% of the big leagues. Plus, the .283 expected batting average and the .483 expected slugging percentage he is surrendering to opponents are both in the eighth percentile.

It’s been even worse for Freeland lately, as he has allowed a whopping 13.6 hits per nine innings over his last six starts. Heck, he gave up nine hits to the A’s the last time out. That feels like 20 to a regular team. 

Xander Bogaerts, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Trent Grisham and Ha-Seong Kim all have xBAs of .284 or better vs. Freeland. I’m taking the Over 6.5 hits allowed here, a number her has gone Over in five of his last six starts.

Kyle Freeland prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-130)

Prop bet #2: Rough day for Rizzo

The New York Yankees stood pat at yesterday’s trade deadline. They didn’t buy, the didn’t sell. They just stood there and did nothing. Which is not a good thing for this team. 

The Yankees enter tonight’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays just three games over .500, losers of three in a row and 3.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the American League. And the lineup desperately needed some reinforcements.

The Bronx Bombers have not been deserving of that moniker lately. They rank dead-last in batting average and 28th in OPS since the start of June. A lot of that coincides with Aaron Judge’s injury, but now that he’s back, opponents are smart enough just to pitch around him since the rest of the lineup has been such trash.

Anthony Rizzo has certainly been part of the problem. The veteran first baseman has been in a slump for most of the season, but it’s been particularly bad since coming out of the All-Star break. Rizzo is hitting just .177 with a .457 OPS, and has just two extra-base hits in his 15 games since the break.

Things won’t get any easier for the Yankees’ first baseman tonight, as he’ll have to dig into the box to face off against Rays' ace Shane McClanahan.

Behind one of the league’s most electric fastballs, McClanahan has been solid this season. The left-hander is pitching to a 3.91 expected ERA, is limiting opponents to a .235 expected batting average, and is striking out 26.1% of the batters he’s faced. 

McClanahan has also had the upper hand in this matchup. Rizzo is just 3-for-14 (.214) with three strikeouts in his career vs. McClanahan. This means I’m betting it's another tough day at the dish for Rizzo, and I'm taking the Under on his hits prop.

Anthony Rizzo prop: Under 0.5 hits (+155)

Prop bet #3: No hassle for Mountcastle

I’m wondering if the Toronto Blue Jays should start employing the Shohei Ohtani strategy and pitch around Ryan Mountcastle. That’s because the level at which the Baltimore Orioles slugger crushes Blue Jays pitching is getting to the point of ridiculousness.

Mountcastle has been solid for the O’s this season, hitting .252 with a .752 OPS and 13 dingers. But for some reason, the dude salivates for Blue Jays pitching. Mountcastle is a career .322 hitter with a 1.021 OPS over 47 games vs. Toronto. That includes 15 dingers and 12 doubles, and there is no reason to think he’ll slow down tonight.

Part of the reason for that is because Toronto hands the ball to left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Now, Kikuchi has been much, much better this season. He is locating his fastball much better and has cut down the walks. But he still leaves pitches over the plate and when he does, they get hammered. 

Kikuchi is surrendering a .449 expected slugging percentage, which ranks in the Bottom 21% of MLB pitchers. And his 22 home runs allowed are tied for the eighth-most in the big leagues.

Mountcastle loves facing southpaws in general, and Kikuchi in particular. Mountcastle has a .334 average and a 1.056 OPS against left-handed pitchers this season and is 5-for-10 with a double and four dingers in his career vs. Kikuchi. That’s good for a crazy 1.679 xSLG.

Like I said, why would Mountcastle stop now? I’m taking the Over on his total bases prop tonight.

Ryan Mountcastle prop: Over 1.5 total bases (-105)