Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Arraez Relishes Matchup in San Diego

Prop bet #1: Pax gets sacked

We’ve seen a bit of regression from Boston Red Sox starter James Paxton in the second half of the season, and things won’t get any easier when he takes the mound on Monday night against the Houston Astros.

Paxton had been giving the Red Sox good innings for the most part, but things have taken a turn for the Big Maple lately. Paxton is pitching to a 4.45 ERA while surrendering a .279 batting average and a .883 OPS over six starts since the All-Star break. 

And while his ERA is down over the last four starts, he has been getting hit even harder. He is allowing a .315 batting average and a .924 OPS over that run, and his 5.33 FIP over that span says he’s been a little lucky to not give up more damage.

Tonight, he gets one of the toughest tests for left-handers in the Astros. Houston mashes southpaws, ranking sixth in batting average, fourth in OPS, and third in wRC+ when facing off against lefties this season.

The Astros' lineup looks like its rounding into form just in time for the home stretch and should take advantage of this matchup with Paxton, who has been giving up far more hits lately. I’m taking the Over 5.5 on his hits allowed prop, a number he has eclipsed in three of his last four starts.

James Paxton prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-115)

Prop bet #2: The Moreno you know

The Arizona Diamondbacks are trying to claw their way back into the National League Wild Card race. They have won seven of their last nine and now sit just a game behind that final postseason spot heading into a big interleague series with the Texas Rangers.

The D-backs got off to a great start this season thanks to a young lineup that was clicking on all cylinders. And after a midseason lull, it looks like they are starting to find their rhythm again. Part of that is due to the return of catcher Gabriel Moreno. 

Moreno was the big prize in the Daulton Varsho trade with the Toronto Blue Jays, and the 23-year-old catcher was having a solid season before a shoulder injury cost him about a month of playing time. But he’s back now and showing that potential that has been touted.

In the six games since he’s been back, he’s hitting .333 with a 1.000 OPS. That includes a double and two dingers. And I like his chances of keeping that going tonight.

That’s because the Rangers hand the ball the Jordan Montgomery. While the left-hander hasn’t given up a ton of runs since being traded from the St. Louis Cardinals, he has allowed 19 hits in his first 18 innings with his new team. Overall, he is giving up a .252 expected batting average for the season, which ranks in the 34th percentile.

On top of that, Moreno has great splits vs. southpaws. Moreno’s average and OPS bump up to .365 and .969, respectively, against lefties this season. He is also 4-for-4 with a double and a home run in his short career vs. Montgomery. 

I’m backing Moreno to keep cooking at the dish and go for two or more total bases. It's something he has done in four of his five starts since coming off the IL. 

Gabriel Moreno prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+155)

Prop bet #3: Arraez whacks Wacha

It was going to be nearly impossible for Luis Arraez to keep up his ridiculous pace at the plate over the course of an entire 162-game season. But that doesn’t mean he still isn’t the best contact hitter in the game, and thanks to his pseudo-slump, we are finally getting some value on his hits prop once again when he and the Miami Marlins take on Michael Wacha and the San Diego Padres.

The Marlins second baseman has been great all season. I mean, his slump has dropped his batting average to .357. That’s kind of silly when you think about it.

But let’s take a look at Arraez’s month of August. He only has three multi-hit games this month. He had at least 10 in all of the previous months this season. That said, he also only had five games this month without a hit at all. So, it’s not like he’s not making contact.

Overall, he still ranks in the 99th percentile in expected batting average, and the 100th percentile in K-rate and whiff rate. Which means he is still making a ton of contact.

This leads us to the matchup with Wacha. The veteran right-hander is due for some regression. Despite a 2.68 ERA, his expected ERA is a much higher 4.09. Wacha also gives up a .243 xBA and a .412 expected slugging percentage. Wacha has also never been a big strikeout guy, and a K-rate sitting at 21.5% this season.

So, a contact pitcher going against the best contact hitter in the game. 

But maybe the weirdest stat of all is the fact Arraez is 3-for-11 vs Wacha in his career, with two home runs. He only has three home runs all season long. At this price, I’m betting Arraez gets his multi-hit groove back.

Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+190)