The second half of the MLB season is in full swing and I’ve located three solid +EV plays today that I’m happy putting my own money on.
Today, I’m targeting three pitcher props and hitting an Over 1.5 walks at Kauffman Stadium, betting the Under on an 8.5 strikeout total, and giving some Over love to a pitcher who is stretched out since moving into the rotation and being disrespected by the books.
Here are my three best MLB player props for Thursday, July 20.
MLB props for July 20
- Lorenzen Over 1.5 walks
- Glasnow Under 8.5 strikeouts
- Matz Over 15.5 outs
Picks made on July 20 at 11:30 a.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Looting Lorenzen’s location
Michael Lorenzen does not project to pitch well today even vs. a soft Kansas City Royals offense. His Under 17.5 outs is showing a ton of value and the market is adjusting accordingly. However, my favorite play on the Detroit starter is with his Over 1.5 walks at +125.
Coming out of the All-Star break, the righty starter was all over the place finishing with five total free passes. He has 266 walks over 664 2/3 innings over his career and is a 10% BB-percentage pitcher. This is a guy who walks nearly a full batter one time threw the order and faces a KC team that drew three walks vs. him in a June meeting this year.
The Detroit Tigers starter has a low 10% swinging-strike rate and although the Royals don’t walk a ton, that is certainly priced in here.
THE BAT is projecting 1.77 walks so this has a better than 50% projected win probability and the +125 price is 10 points longer than other books.
Lorenzen has a decent drop in spin on his fastball over his last three starts and gets an extreme hitter’s umpire today with a neutral framing catcher in Eric Haase. Cheering for walks is a fun way to watch baseball.
Michael Lorenzen prop: Over 1.5 walks (+125 at bet365)
Prop bet #2: Nine is a big number
Tyler Glasnow has been a stud since returning to the lineup and is sporting a 71/18 K:BB ratio over just 47-plus innings. But with FanDuel hanging a strikeout total of 8.5 while most books are at 7.5, I don’t care how good you are, getting nine Ks is no easy task.
Glasnow also doesn’t have the longest leash which is a combination of his own health issues as well as the compounded injuries to the Tampa Bay Rays' rotation. Only the Oakland bullpen has thrown more innings than Tampa’s as this is a wounded starting rotation. There is no need to push Glasnow who projects for sub-100 pitches.
The Tampa starter has topped this lofty number twice this year over nine starts and that came against the Mariners and Royals. Seattle is the second-heaviest K% team in baseball and KC ranks seventh. The Baltimore Orioles are a much better lineup and sport the 21st-highest K% in baseball.
At the time of writing, Betway, PoinstBet, SIA, and Kambi books are all posting 8.5 lines but FanDuel at -122 is the best price. The Under 7.5 at plus money is showing a little value to the Under but with THE BAT projecting 7.74 punchouts and the -122 line implying roughly 8.42 strikeouts, that is some +EV in today’s late slate.
A lot has to go right to get nine or more punchouts.
Tyler Glasnow prop: Under 8.5 strikeouts (-122 at FanDuel)
Prop bet #3: Making money with Matz
Steven Matz was pitching well out of the St. Louis bullpen but has found himself back in the rotation thanks to some injuries. He'll be making his third start since joining the rotation and threw 75 pitches in his first start and followed that up with 86 pitches on July 15. THE BAT is projecting plenty of pitches today which is giving value to his Over markets — specifically his total outs.
The books opened his total outs at 15.5 and +120 to the Over. That number is gone as the public is moving this market south, but bet365 is still hanging a +115 when Pinnacle is at -105.
Matz will face a Chicago Cubs lineup that is still without Dansby Swanson, strikes out at a Top-10 rate, and is an average unit at best. Matz has 13 strikeouts over his latest two starts and matches up well vs. this lineup that strikes out at a 25% clip vs. lefties.
There are some secondary factors that are also driving this Under. Wrigley is always hard to project the wind but as of now, it’s looking like 16.7 mph winds blowing in and across the diamond which should help the lefty who can give up home runs.
THE BAT is projecting 17.2 outs and 5.89 strikeouts giving his Over 15.5 outs (+115 at bet365) and Over 4.5 strikeouts (-155 at bet365) plenty of value. Putting those together in an SGP at bet365 also gives a +155 ticket but I’m happy just riding the Over 15.5 outs at +115.
Steven Matz prop: Over 15.5 outs (+115 at bet365)
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