Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Freeland Continues to Hand Out Free Passes

Prop bet #1: Same old same old

Happy Fade Patrick Corbin Day to those who celebrate.

The Washington Nationals’ embattled starter may have lost the crown as baseball’s best fade to Jordan Lyles (or maybe Austin Gomber) but maybe he shouldn’t have.

The fact Corbin had a short stint where he led his team to a handful of wins and wasn’t giving up the most runs had some thinking the lefty wasn’t a dumpster fire of a starting pitcher... but the advanced numbers paint the real picture.

Corbin is pitching to a 6.40 expected ERA while surrendering a .323 expected batting average and .522 expected slugging percentage — all three marks ranking in the Bottom 6% of MLB or worse.

Tonight, he’ll take the mound against an underachieving Seattle Mariners team who sit middle of the pack when it comes to taking on LHP, ranking 19th in batting average and 18th in wRC+ against them. However, bad lineups haven’t stopped Corbin from giving up a boatload of hits.

Corbin is giving up 11.5 H/9 and a part of the reason for that is because Washington tends to leave Corbin in games no matter how he is pitching. He is averaging 5 2/3 innings per start and has recorded at least six frames pitched in 10 of his last 15 starts.

Corbin has surrendered seven or more knocks in 12 of his 16 starts this season, and at close to even money, I’m betting he makes it 13 of 17. 

Patrick Corbin prop: Over 6.5 hits allowed (-105)

Prop bet #2: Free bases

With a total of 12.5, oddsmakers are prepared for some runs tonight at Coors Field when the Colorado Rockies host the Los Angeles Dodgers. And Rockies starter Kyle Freeland is definitely expected to do his part to help contribute to that.

Freeland’s season can be best described as average at best. The Rockies' southpaw sports a 5.11 xERA while surrendering a .281 xBA and .482 xSLUG. Tonight, he gets a tough matchup against Los Angeles.

The Dodgers rank sixth in OPS and eighth in wRC+ when facing lefties this season, but what they do best is work counts — sitting with the highest walk rate in baseball vs. southpaws at 11.8%.

Freeland has been in a bit of a slump, pitching to a 5.63 ERA and surrendering a .318 batting average to opponents over his last six starts. Part of the reason for such a high ERA is his walk rate jumped from 6.5% to 8.3% over that span.

Freeland’s walks prop is set at 1.5 with the Over priced at -105 at DraftKings, and I’m not sure this number is taking his recent command issues or how long a leash he's given into account.

Freeland has faced an average of 24 batters per start over his last eight outings. At a walk rate of 8.3%, that works out to just about two walks per start... something he has done in six of his last nine starts and in five of his last six overall.

Kyle Freeland prop: Over 1.5 walks (-105)

Prop bet #3: All Tork no torque

For all intents and purposes, the Detroit Tigers seem allergic to hitting baseballs and scoring runs. Only one team in MLB has scored fewer runs than the Tigers this season — surprise, surprise it’s the Oakland A’s.

One of the problems is that several of their up-and-coming young players haven’t taken that next step in their development, including first baseman Spencer Torkelson.  

Torkelson clearly has a hole in his swing of late, hitting just .219 with a .666 OPS for the season. Torkelson is also 4-for-41 (.098 average) with a .363 OPS and 15 strikeouts over his last 10 games. 

Tonight, he’ll dig in against Texas Rangers starting pitcher Dane Dunning. The righty has been very reliable since joining the Rangers rotation full-time at the beginning of May, allowing two earned runs or fewer in six of his nine starts. 

While he does give up his fair share of hits, he’s been a problem for Torkelson. The Tigers hitter is just 1 of 5 with two strikeouts in his career vs. Dunning, good for a .228 xBA. Torkelson is hitless in six of his last 10 games, and at this +190 price tag, I’m betting he makes it seven of his last 11.

Spencer Torkelson prop: Under 0.5 hits (+190 at BetMGM)