Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Anderson Gets Knocked Around by Dodgers

Prop bet #1: H to the Rizzo

Does a perfect game count when the starter is a noted cheater and it’s against the historically bad Oakland A’s? Either way, the New York Yankees will need a win in today’s matinee matchup to avoid an ugly series loss to the A’s. 

This season has certainly not gone to plan for the Bronx Bombers. They've been treading water to this point with a 44-36 record, and with the injury to Aaron Judge, the holes in the Yankees’ lineup have become apparent. 

However, one guy they have been able to rely on for the most part has been veteran Anthony Rizzo. The first baseman has been solid this season with a .268 average and a .787 OPS, and he looks like he’s been seeing the ball well recently.

Rizzo is hitting .333 with a .958 OPS — which includes three doubles over his last eight games — and I like him to keep trending in that direction in this matchup.

The A’s hand the ball to 26-year-old rookie Hogan Harris, who is making just his third career start and eighth appearance overall. While Harris has been a little up and down, one thing that has been interesting is his reverse splits. He is giving up a .261 average and a .762 OPS to left-handed hitters, and wouldn’t you know it, Rizzo has reverse splits as well — hitting .365 and a .959 OPS when facing southpaws this season.

Mix in an Oakland pen that ranks dead last in xFIP and I really like the plus-money value for Rizzo to go Over his total bases prop in this matchup.

Anthony Rizoo prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+145)

Prop bet #2: Early bed time

Maybe Adam Wainwright should have followed his longtime batterymate’s lead and retired. While Yadier Molina has ridden off into the sunset, Wainwright has had to be a part of what has been a dismal year for the St. Louis Cardinals.

And Wainwright has certainly done his part to contribute to this tough season in St. Louis. To say Wainwright has struggled would be an understatement, as the veteran currently sports a 6.84 expected ERA while giving up a .329 expected batting average and a .555 expected slugging percentage. He also isn’t striking out anyone with a measly 10.9% K-rate. All of those numbers rank in the Bottom 2% of MLB.

Those struggles have generally meant shorter outings for the Cardinals’ longtime starter. Wainwright is surrendering 1.52 hits per inning, which means he can quickly rack up that pitch count with all those extra batters he has to face. As a result, he is averaging just Under 5 1/3 innings pitched per start — and I’m betting it’s more of the same tonight.

That’s because he’ll be staring across at the reigning World Series champion Houston Astros. Although the Astros haven’t been as potent at the plate as we’ve been used to in the past, the bats appear to be coming around in the dog days. Houston ranks 15th in batting average, 10th in OPS, and ninth in wRC+ since the start of June. So, it should have more than enough power to make life tough for Wainwright here.

He's only completed six innings once in his nine starts this season, meaning getting even money on the Under 17.5 outs recorded for him in this tough matchup looks like a solid play tonight.

Adam Wainwright prop: Under 17.5 outs recorded (+100)

Prop bet #3: Rockie gets rocked

Poor Chase Anderson. It feels like the Colorado Rockies are just looking to fill innings and throwing the veteran to the wolves every five games... and the Los Angeles Dodgers sure fit the role of wolves.

Anderson is having a tough go of things. The righty is pitching to a 5.69 xERA while surrendering a .288 xBA and a .483 xSLUG to opponents. He is also striking out just 15.2% of the batters he is facing, with all of those numbers ranking in the Bottom 13% of MLB or worse. 

But the Rockies don’t really care. He still averages 21.3 batters faced per start, and since they leave him in, the hits can rack up quickly. Anderson is allowing a whopping 12.8 hits per nine innings over his last seven starts and has allowed six or more knocks in four of those seven starts.

That doesn’t bode well going against Los Angeles who feasts on right-handed pitching. The Dodgers rank sixth in OPS and eighth in wRC+ when digging in vs. righties this season, and I’m betting they take advantage of this matchup by sending Anderson Over his hits-allowed prop of 5.5.

Chase Anderson prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (-120)