I’m a sucker for a Luis Arraez hits prop bet. Correction, I’m a sucker for a Luis Arraez hits prop bet at big plus money. He’s on fire even by his standards, and the Marlins hit machine will keep on rolling tonight vs. the Royals.
Arraez highlights a bases-loaded day on the diamond with all 30 MLB teams in action, meaning a plethora of MLB player props to dig through. That includes the Angels' Tyler Anderson taking the mound — who has been giving up hit parades of his own this season — and the Mariners' Logan Gilbert will look to take advantage of a matchup with the slumping Padres.
So, let’s check out my favorite MLB prop picks below. Be sure to also check out Jared Hochman's home run props for tonight's slate as well!
MLB props for June 6
- Arraez Over 1.5 hits
- Anderson Over 5.5 hits allowed
- Gilbert Over 5.5 Ks
Picks made on June 6 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
Read full analysis of each pick.
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Best MLB bets today
Prop bet #1: Arraezing to the occasion
I just can’t help myself with these Luis Arraez hitting props.
That’s because he's not human. He is a machine built with one purpose — to be baseball’s best contact hitter. The Miami Marlins second baseman is locked in, even by his standards, and he’ll have a great opportunity to keep swinging a hot stick when he and his teammates continue their series against the Kansas City Royals.
We are more than two months into this MLB season and Arraez is flirting with the magic number that is a .400 batting average. After yet another multi-hit night, Arraez is now hitting .399 for the year and the streak he is on is pretty incredible.
The 26-year-old is hitting .526 with a 1.200 OPS over his last 10 games, which includes seven multi-hit games, and now he gets a great matchup as the Royals hand the ball to veteran Zack Greinke.
Greinke is having a solid, if unspectacular, season for the Royals. The 39-year-old is pitching to a 4.61 expected ERA, but he isn’t striking out many batters and is pitching to contact. A lot of contact. The right hander is surrendering a .280 expected batting to opponents. And get this, Arraez is batting .357 off of Grienke this season in 14 ABs.
Oddsmakers are still giving us tantalizing plus money on Arraez’s hits prop, and it’s a good enough price that I’ll be backing him to notch his eighth multi-hit game in his last 11 tries.
Luis Arraez prop: Over 1.5 hits (+165)
Prop bet #2: Tame Tyler
It appears that another year of inconsistent pitching is going to hold back Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout, and the Los Angeles Angels once again. Tonight’s starter, Tyler Anderson, was supposed to be part of the solution following an All-Star campaign with the cross-town rival Dodgers... but that just hasn’t been the case so far this season.
The veteran lefty has always been a contact pitcher, but the contact is coming at a much more regular rate this season. A year after pitching to 3.10 xERA and a .225 xBA with the Dodgers, those numbers have ballooned to 4.99 and .268 with the Angels.
Even though Anderson has never been a big strikeout guy, his K numbers are even worse than usual. He’s striking out just 13.8% of the hitters he faces. That is the worst mark of his career and ranks in the Bottom 5% of MLB this season.
And the hits could keep on coming tonight as he’ll stare across at a Chicago Cubs lineup that has done a decent job of handling southpaws. The Cubbies rank eighth in batting average, and fifth in OPS and wRC+ when facing off against left-handed pitchers this season.
Anderson’s hits allowed prop is on the board at 5.5, and he’s allowed six or more hits in six of his previous nine starts. In the other three, he allowed five. At this plus money, the Over looks like a solid play.
Tyler Anderson prop: Over 5.5 hits allowed (+125)
Prop bet #3: Golden Gilbert
Without a doubt, the San Diego Padres have the most disappointing lineup in baseball. Not many would have predicted that a lineup featuring Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., and Xander Bogaerts would be struggling as much as they are.
But that’s exactly what is happening as the season rolls into its third month. San Diego ranks 24th in scoring, 29th in batting average, and 23rd in OPS. The Padres get another tough matchup on Tuesday night as they’ll dig in against Seattle Mariners' electric young right hander Logan Gilbert.
Now, in his third full Big League season, Gilbert looks like he belongs. The RHP has a live fastball that averages over 95 miles per hour and mixes that with a full allotment of offspeed and breaking pitches.
As a result, he is pitching to a 3.03 xERA, is limiting opponents to a .228 xBA, and ranks in the 80th percentile in strikeout rate (28.7%). The splits for the Padres against righties don’t make anything better. They rank 25th in OPS and 22nd in wRC+ with the eighth-highest K-rate when facing righties.
Gilbert’s strikeout total is sitting at 5.5 for this matchup. He has struck out six or more in nine of his 11 starts this season and I really like his chances of going Over again tonight.
Logan Gilbert prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
Not intended for use in MA.
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