Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Highlighting an Undervalued Trout Prop

Mike Trout is one of the biggest names in baseball and while elite players usually get inflated MLB player props, Trout's odds this Saturday are surprisingly low.

We dive into the betting value on Trout while also backing Washington's Josiah Gray and San Francisco's Logan Webb with our best free MLB player prop picks for May 27.

MLB props for May 27

• Josiah Gray Under 2.5 earned runs
• Logan Webb Over 5.5 strikeouts
• Trout Over 0.5 hits

Picks made on 5/27/2023 at 12:15 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Gray skies

Washington Nationals starter Josiah Gray might have finally turned the corner after a pair of rough seasons to begin his MLB career. He was rocked for five runs in his season debut against the Braves but has been lights out since. In his last nine starts, the 25-year-old has pitched to a 2.05 ERA despite struggling with his control.

While Gray is due for regression when it comes to his ERA, he still ranks in the Top 30th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, and barrel rate. Although he doesn't strike out many batters and needs to cut down on his walks, he should have better production in those departments against a Kansas Royals lineup that ranks near the bottom of the majors in strikeout and walk rate. 

Kansas City is just 27th in the majors in OPS (.679) with that number dipping to .654 against right-handers like Gray. With Gray allowing two or fewer runs in eight of his last nine starts, take the Under 2.5 on his earned runs today.

Josiah Gray prop: Under 2.5 earned runs (-105)

Prop bet #2: Caught in Logan's Webb

Logan Webb is coming off back-to-back impressive seasons and has pitched to a 2.91 ERA with a 1.11 WHIP through 10 starts this year. Webb had a career-high 26.5% strikeout rate in 2021 and while that number dipped to 20.7% last year, it's back up to 25.3% this season.

Today, Webb and the San Francisco Giants face off against a struggling Milwaukee Brewers lineup that is plating just 2.9 runs per game in its last 10 contests. The Brewers are 23rd in the majors in OPS (.694) while ranking 26th in strikeout rate. 

That's bad news against Webb, who is 17th in the majors in strike percentage (66.7%) while ranking 30th in strikeouts per 9 innings (9.0). Webb has fanned 6+ batters in six of his last eight starts and looks like a good bet to go Over 5.5 tonight. 

Logan Webb prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-112)

Prop bet #3: Like Mike

Mike Trout went 2-4 at the plate last night and has now picked up a hit in seven of his last eight games. The three-time AL MVP is one of the best hitters in the world and while his .280 batting average this year is the lowest since he became a full-time starter in 2012, it's still a respectable number.

Trout has a proven track record with a .302 batting average across nearly 1,500 career games and he has a hit in 35 of 48 (72.9%) games this season. That makes the Over 0.5 hits at -160 (implied probability of 61.54%) for Trout look a bit off.

It isn't like the Los Angeles Angels are facing an ace tonight either, with Edward Cabrera taking to the mound for the visiting Miami Marlins. Cabrera is in the Bottom 40th percentile in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, while pitching to a 5.05 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP in 10 starts. 

Mike Trout prop: Over 0.5 hits (-160)

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