Today’s MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Gilbert Relishes Oakland Assignment

We've got a busy Wednesday on the diamond with every MLB team taking to the field. That means thousands of MLB player prop bets to consider.

We've sifted through the odds to find the best MLB betting angles today, and have settled on a breakout batter in Baltimore along with a pair of pitchers with strikeout numbers that look ripe for the picking. Here are my best free MLB prop picks for May 3.

MLB props for May 3

• Mateo Over 0.5 runs
• Gilbert Over 6.5 strikeouts
• Ohtani Over 6.5 strikeouts

Picks made on 5/3/2023 at 10:10 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Best MLB bets today

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Prop bet #1: Hip hip Jorge!

Orioles shortstop Jorge Mateo is having a breakout season, and leads the team in batting average (.338) while ranking second in on-base percentage (.384). 

While it's fair to be skeptical about some stats this early in the year, it's undeniable that Mateo has made improvements at the plate from 2022 — his first full season in the bigs. The 27-year-old is showing more plate discipline, reducing his strikeout rate from 27.6% to 15.9%, while his hard hit rate has jumped from 32.7% to 46.3%.

The rest of Baltimore's lineup has also been productive, which means that when Mateo gets on base, he often ends up scoring. 

Today, Baltimore's surging offense takes on the Royals and struggling starter Zack Greinke. The former All-Star seems to have fallen off a cliff, and has pitched to a 6.10 ERA with an OBA of .305. The 39-year-old has surrendered 25 hits and 19 runs across 19 2/3 innings over his last four starts. 

Kansas City's bullpen isn't much better, with their relievers posting a 5.50 ERA with a .266 OBA. With Mateo plating at least one run in 12 of his last 13 contests, take the Over 0.5 on his runs scored today. 

Jorge Mateo Prop: Over 0.5 runs (+125)

Prop bet #2: Gilbert gathers the Ks

Mariners right-hander Logan Gilbert is coming off an impressive 2022 campaign, where he pitched to a 3.20 ERA in 32 starts.  He's been less impressive this season, posting a 4.23 ERA and surrendering four runs in each of his last two starts.

However, analytics suggest that Gilbert is due for some positive regression, since he boasts an expected ERA of 2.81 while ranking in the Top 20th percentile in strikeout and walk rate. 

In fact, Gilbert's strikeout rate of 30.1% is significantly higher than last year's 22.7%. Despite some shaky performances in three of five starts this season, he has still fanned at least six batters in every outing.

He should be able to pitch deeper into today's game with the Mariners matching up against the Athletics in the pitcher-friendly confines at Oakland Coliseum.

The A's plate just 3.80 runs per game, and they rank 26th in strikeout rate (25.4%), with that number soaring to 39.8% in their last three games. I'm backing Gilbert to go Over 5.5 strikeouts before that number ticks up to 6.5 at most books.

Logan Gilbert Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (-141)

Prop bet #3: Ohtani outstanding again

It's "Shotime" in St. Louis, where the Angels send Shohei Ohtani to the mound against the Cardinals.

Ohtani is coming off a rare poor start when he surrendered a pair of dingers and five runs to the A's. Even in that ugly outing, he still managed to fan eight batters, and he has now managed to rack up at least eight punchouts in four of six starts this year. In fact, one of those outings where he went below that number was in a rain-shortened appearance of just two innings. 

Ohtani has a proven track record of mowing down batters, and ended last season by posting at least seven strikeouts in 13 of his final 17 starts. With a heater that averages 97.1 mph and a sweeper that continues to flummox batters, Ohtani ranks in the Top 10th percentile in both strikeout rate and whiff rate.

Shohei Ohtani Prop: Over 6.5 strikeouts (-120)

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