Today’s MLB Prop Picks: Riding the Hot Jazz Hands

The MLB season — all the glorious prop markets that come with it — is in full swing. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props. 

We’re coming off a 5-1 SU +4.6 unit run over our last two articles and looking to add to that today. We’re hitting the Under on a big strikeout prop in some cold afternoon temperatures, fading a rookie a pitcher making his second straight start against the same team, and continuing to ride the Jazz man's hot stick.

MLB props for April 27

• Cease Under 7.5 Ks (-132)
• Gore Under 5.5 Ks (-130)
• Chisholm Over 1.5 TB (+150)

Picks made on 4/27/2022 at 9:30 a.m. ET.
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

Cease and desist

Dylan Cease will get an afternoon start versus the Royals at home today and his strikeout prop is sitting at a lofty 7.5 leaning to the Under. He’s coming off a start where he struck out just three Guardians and now faces a KC lineup that strikes out at the lowest rate in the American League.

This is also a game that will feature temperatures so cold that the game had to be moved to the afternoon. Game-time temperatures are expected to be in the low-40s with double-digit winds blowing from right field to left field. Changing pitching times is also never a great thing for starters who know their start times well in advance. 

Cease sits in the Top-15 percentile in terms of fastball velocity and spin rate and he may be one of the best K% pitchers in the AL this season, but this 7.5 K prop seems a little high in this spot and he hasn't been missing bats at an elite level yet this season. 

Cease owns a 29% called strikes plus whiff rate (CSW) on the season, has not recorded more than 17 outs in any of his three starts, and his inflated walk rate has been a big reason why his pitch count usually forces him out before completing the fifth inning. 

Cease is throwing his fastball just 37.8% of the time and focusing more on his slider at 40.8%. If the temperature affects his grip, his slider could lose some spin, which would be detrimental to recording eight or more strikeouts. 

Nearly everything has to go right for Cease to hit the eight K mark today and we’re betting against it in conditions that won’t be friendly to anyone involved in the game. This price is beginning to move towards the Under.

Pick: Dylan Cease Under 7.5 strikeouts (-132)

Gore on the floor

MacKenzie Gore picked up his first MLB win last week in a victory over the lowly Cincinnati Reds and he’ll face them again today. However, he'll have to do so at Great American Ballpark, which isn’t as friendly to pitchers as Petco Park in San Diego.

Gore recorded 15 outs in his recent meeting with the Reds and had just a 23% CSW despite striking out seven batters. The Reds have the highest K% in baseball but this lineup is getting healthier and should be able to make an adjustment versus a rookie pitcher after seeing him just seven days ago. 

Since that last game, Jonathan India and Tyler Naquin have returned to the lineup and the Reds offense woke up last night, scoring six runs while managing to strike out just four times versus San Diego starter Joe Musgrove, who entered with a strikeout total of 5.5.

Gore’s metrics aren’t impressive over his first two MLB starts, either. He sits in the lower-third percentile in spin rate, hard-hit percentage, average exit velocity, whiff percentage, and chase percentage. He has just 13 swinging strikes over 161 pitches despite having a fastball with an average velocity of 95 mph.

We’d expect the Reds' veteran lineup to make the adjustments versus the left-hander, especially at a hitter-friendly park with a slight wind blowing out. The market has also caught on to fading this Cincinnati lineup and might have slightly overadjusted opposing lines.

Pick: MacKenzie Gore Under 5.5 strikeouts (-130)

Jazz effect

Jazz Chisholm had an Over 0.5 total bases prop set at -130 Saturday night, which we hammered and cashed on the first pitch of the game when the infielder went yard for his fourth homer of the season. The 24-year-old speed/power threat is slashing .286/.327/.673 and sits fourth in the league in slugging.

Tonight, he’ll face Washington starter Erick Fedde, against whom he is 3-for-10 lifetime with a pair of long balls. Fedde’s 1.65 WHIP through 13 innings is the seventh-worst mark of all the probable starters today. He’s given up 17 total bases on the season and is coming off an outing versus the light-hitting Diamondbacks where he gave up eight hits and seven runs over 3 1-3 innings of work. 

With Chisholm now hitting at the top of the order and being a visitor, the young stud will likely see at least five at-bats and he has a great chance to cash his Over 1.5 total bases, which is paying a sexy +150. 

Temperatures at game time will be in the low-50s which isn’t ideal, but double-digit winds will be blowing out. With plenty of at-bats lined up, Jazz could get this with a pair of singles and his elite sprint speed could also help us out. Very few players in baseball have Chisholm's tools at their disposal. 

Pick: Jazz Chisholm Jr. Over 1.5 total bases (+150 at bet365)

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