If you're considering what MLB props to play, you often want to look at players and teams falling under the radar to see where the value lies. At other times though, you just want to back the top players and teams and bet on them to do what they do best.
We're leaning in that direction today as we put our money on a Cy Young favorite, the highest-scoring team in the majors, and a recently traded player chasing the MLB lead in stolen bases.
Here are our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Friday, August 13, 2021.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Reds vs Phillies first half total Under 4 (+104)
With Jacob deGrom potentially being shut down for the rest of the season, Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler has rocketed to the top of the NL Cy Young odds board. The 31-year-old is pitching to a 2.46 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP and 181 strikeouts through 156 innings and he is coming off a dominant performance against the Mets last week where he threw a complete-game shutout and allowed just two hits.
Tonight, Wheeler and the Phillies try to retain their razor-thin lead atop the NL East as they welcome the Cincinnati Reds to town.
Reds starter Tyler Mahle has sizzled on the road this season, going 6-1 with a 2.06 ERA and an opponent batting average of .192 in 65 2-3 innings. And while the Reds have been one of the most productive offensive teams in the league at home, their hitting numbers are much more modest on the road, where they have an OPS of .729 and plate 2.12 runs per game in the first five innings.
With how well Wheeler is dealing and how sharp Mahle has looked in away contests, we like the Under on the first half total.
Starling Marte stolen bases Over 0.5 (+285)
When the A's traded for Starling Marte at the trade deadline they addressed one of the club's biggest needs: Speed on the basepaths. Marte is one of the game's most well-rounded players and has stolen 280 bases with a .289 batting average in his career, with 22 steals on 25 attempts with the Marlins this season.
If Oakland was expecting that level of production from the veteran outfielder they must be absolutely thrilled at what he's actually done since being acquired. In 12 games with the A's, Marte is batting .415 and has stolen a whopping nine bases (on nine attempts).
Tonight, the A's face off against the Texas Rangers in Arlington. The Rangers will give the ball to Dane Dunning, who has a 1.32 WHIP with an OBA of .270 and they have a subpar bullpen behind him, so don't expect them to keep Marte off the bases.
The Rangers catching platoon of Jonah Heim and Jose Trevino also hasn't done a good job of throwing out baserunners, with Heim posting a caught stealing rate of 18 percent and Trevino even worse at 16 percent.
Houston Astros team total Over 4.5 (-125)
The Houston Astros head to Anaheim tonight to begin a three-game set against division rival Los Angeles Angels. The Astros lead the majors in scoring with 5.39 runs per game and that number bumps up to 5.72 on the road.
Patrick Sandoval will toe the rubber for the Angels. The lefty is having a breakout year for Los Angeles, pitching to a 3.39 ERA, but he struggled in his only start against the 'Stros, when he gave up four runs in two innings. He also got ripped by Houston last season, surrendering seven hits and five runs before getting the hook midway through the third inning.
In addition to their league-leading overall offensive numbers, the Astros also have a tendency to shred southpaws like Sandoval, ranking second in the majors with an OPS of .784 against lefties this season.
They have an absolutely loaded lineup from top to bottom with a projected eight starters for tonight's game having a slugging percentage above .475, including first baseman Yuli Gurriel (slashing .324/.388/.490) who is expected to make his return from the 10-day IL.
Los Angeles also has a subpar bullpen, with their relievers ranking 24th in the majors in ERA (4.70) and 25th in WHIP (1.42). We're taking the Over 4.5 on Houston's team total.
MLB betting card for August 13
- Reds vs Phillies first half total Under 4 (+104)
- Starling Marte stolen bases Over 0.5 (+285)
- Houston Astros team total Over 4.5 (-125)
Picks made on 8/13/2021 at 10 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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