The trade deadline has passed, and playoff races are tightening up. With that comes numerous and possibly exploitable prop markets. This article will try to find some of MLB’s best props and side bets for the day and does all the heavy lifting so you don’t have to. If there’s a line on it, we’ll look into it.
We’re getting in on some Game 1 action between the Red Sox and Blue Jays, hoping balls continue to fly out of the Great American Ball Park and taking a right-handed rookie to top his K prop.
Check out our favorite MLB free prop bets and predictions for Saturday, August 7.
Today’s MLB props and picks
George Springer Over 0.5 total bases (-175, 2 units)
There’s a lot of buzz in the city of Toronto with the play of the Blue Jays. They sit 2.5 games back in the Wild Card, are winners of eight of their last 10, and have earned a victory in seven of the eight games since returning to the Rogers Center. Leading the way offensively for the Jays is George Springer, who has been nearly unstoppable at the dish.
The lead-off man collected another pair of extra-base hits — a double and a triple — in last night’s 12-4 victory over the Red Sox. Over the last seven days, the outfielder is slashing .433/.455/.1.033. That 1.033 is a slugging percentage and not an OPS. Do you want a bigger sample size? Over the last two weeks, Springer owns a 1.268 OPS and in his eight games at the Rogers Center, he is sporting a 1.545 OPS while hitting .471 with 11 extra-base hits.
Springer and the Jays will play a doubleheader today in Toronto, which will cut down his at-bats, but since he is hitting first in the order, he should still see four chances to top his player props. He will see Boston pitcher Nick Pivetta, who he is 4 for 5 against lifetime. His total bases prop sits at 0.5 and is paying -175 for the Over. We’re dropping two units to win 1.14u.
Cincinnati Reds team total Over 5.5 (-115)
The Reds rake at home, scoring 5.38 runs per game at the Great American Ball Park this year, which is the third-highest home total in baseball. Cincinnati hung 10 runs on the swashbucklers yesterday and has scored at least five runs in seven straight home games.
The Cincinnati bats will face Pittsburgh starter Mitch Keller, who owns a 7.05 ERA over 13 starts and has given up 38 hits (plus 14 walks) and 24 runs over his last 28 innings. He’s seen the Reds once this year — in Pittsburgh — and got tagged for seven runs over 3 1-3 innings of work.
The Reds are back to full health as Nick Castellanos has returned after missing two weeks. He is hitting .370 at home this year with a 1.114 OPS. Joey Votta also comes into Saturday swinging a hot stick and is slashing .327/.424./.964 with 11 homers over the last 15 days.
The Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly homes in the MLB and ballparkpal.com has it with a +1.63 HR factor for Saturday with an extra six feet of carry thanks to the weather conditions.
We’re loving the Over 5.5 on the Cincy team total today.
Tylor Megill Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
The Mets’ Tylor Megill has been a savior to the New York rotation as he has a 2.61 ERA over his first 40-plus big-league innings. He has also struck out 43 and has topped 5.5 strikeouts in five of his eight starts.
Marcus Stroman topped his K prop of 4.5 yesterday against the Phillies which marked the third time in four games a starter has hit the Over on their K prop versus Philadelphia.
Megill has allowed just two walks over his last four starts which is something we look for when taking the Over on pitcher strikeouts. We want a starter who will make it five or six innings and with young pitchers, that is always a worry. Megill has thrown at least five innings in four straight, and with the Mets getting overtaken in the standings by the Phillies last night, a lot is riding on the game.
The Mets’ starter had a 13.275 K/9 in the minors this year before the call up, has an above-average O-zone (Outside the strike zone) swing percentage and hammers first-pitch strikes at a 68 percent rate. We’re getting a great price on this number at +112.
MLB betting card for August 7
- George Springer Over 0.5 total bases (-175, 2 units)
- Cincinnati Reds team total Over 5.5 (-115)
- Tylor Megill Over 5.5 strikeouts (+112)
Picks made on 8/7/2021 at 8:25 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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