The MLB summer months are just around the corner and the player prop market is starting to heat up. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player props.
We’re riding the hot sticks of the Padres in a great matchup, fading one of the better lefties this season, and finding some +EV in a stolen base market.
MLB props for June 17
Picks made on 6/17/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Net Cronenworth
The San Diego Padres are fresh off a sweep of the Chicago Cubs where they cashed 41 runs over four games. Now, this hot offense gets to be aided by the thin air of Coors Field as the first-place Friars take on the Rockies in Colorado.
Many know that Manny Machado is a legit MVP candidate (+400), but the man hitting in front of him has been raking as well.
Jake Cronenworth is slashing .407/.500.593 over the last seven games and .362/.464/.471 over the last 15 games. He was absolutely dialed in at Wrigley where the wind was swirling and also aiding hitters. He finished that four-game set with at least two bases in each game, had 10 hits including three three-hit games, and finished with 14 total bases.
Cronenworth is a great contact hitter who sits in the Top 12% in Whiff percentage and Chase rate, plus he has some wheels to boot on the basepaths. The Padres' second baseman also crushes left-handed pitching with a 0.846 OPS vs. southpaws.
Cronenworth will face Colorado left-hander Kyle Freeland tonight, who allows a .304 batting average at Coors on the season and a .500 slugging percentage.
Cronenworth is a doubles machine and because of it, he’s hit the Over 1.5 total bases in seven of his last nine games. He has a great matchup vs. a lefty and the environment is also in his favor.
Pick: Jake Cronenworth Over 1.5 total bases (-120 at Caesars)
The empty Monty
The New York Yankees are 31 games over .500, winners of 14 of their last 15 games, but have a tough matchup tonight in Toronto.
The Yankees crossed the border yesterday and if you’ve ever had to do so of late, getting into Canada is not the easiest process these days. They are also coming off a series where they swept the Rays but managed just eight runs on just 12 total hits. The Toronto offense, however, comes into this series as the best unit in baseball over the last 30 days and is going to make life difficult for New York Starter Jordan Montgomery.
Monty has struck out just 51 batters over 66-plus innings and sitting down batters just isn’t his bag. The lefty mixes speeds well but if he isn’t fooling batters with his offspeed pitches, he gets hit hard as he sits in the Top 25th percentile in both hard-hit rate and exit velocity.
The southpaw faces an offense that is seeing the ball well with a .289/.359/.495 slash line over the last 30 days, as well as a 17.8% strikeout rate which is a top-three rank in baseball. Montgomery had a good outing versus the Jays back in early May, but Toronto was struggling offensively then and have turned things around since then.
Bo Bichette, Santiago Espinal, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a combined 11-for-21 against Montgomery with three home runs altogether. Alejandro Kirk (1.115 OPS), Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (.911 OPS), and George Springer (.861 OPS) are also tearing the cover off the ball over the last 30 days. This is not an easy lineup to navigate and with an afternoon game yesterday, the Jays are a little more rested coming into tonight’s opener.
Montgomery’s strikeout prop is sitting on the long side at 4.5 and paying -106 to the Under. Monty hasn’t collected more than five strikeouts in any of his 12 starts this season so he certainly isn’t going to crush this total. With the Jays not striking out and possibly knocking him around a bit, the Under here is a more probable outcome.
Pick: Jordan Montgomery Under 4.5 strikeouts (-106 at Caesars)
Swiping Shohei
Shohei Ohtani is riding an 11-game hitting streak and has been getting on base at a great clip over this month. He batted lead-off yesterday and could see five plate appearances today versus the Mariners. The former Fighting Ham might be swinging a hot stick right now, but we’re looking for some value on his legs Friday night on the West Coast.
On the season, Ohtani has seven stolen bases and tonight’s matchup versus Robbie Ray is one he can take advantage of while spending plenty of time on the bases. It’s not often we can get a player with Ohtani’s sprint speed in a matchup versus a pitcher who gives up stolen bases at a high rate for +900.
Ray has given six stolen bases (nine attempts) over his last 10 starts. This is one of the best low-risk/high-reward bets on the board today and is showing plenty of +EV.
Pick: Shohei Ohtani Over 0.5 stolen bases (+900 at PointsBet)
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