It’s a new week of MLB prop betting and we start by looking at some of the hottest pitchers going in the Big Leagues right now.
The New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole is punching out batters better than almost anyone and is still giving up value with his strikeout prop, while the Arizona Diamondbacks’ Madison Bumgarner is arguably the best pitcher going right now and will be in a pitcher’s duel against Walker Buehler and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
We break down and pick those games and more with our best free MLB prop bets and predictions for Monday, May 17.
Today’s MLB props and picks
Mets-Braves five-inning total Under 4 (-110)
The New York Mets are coming off getting swept by the Tampa Bay Rays over the weekend and now head to Truist Park in Atlanta to face the Braves, who only sit two games behind them for first place in the National League East.
The Mets hand the ball to Taijuan Walker for the opener, and he has been excellent his first year in Queens. The big right-hander has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts and has given up just one run on five hits, while striking out 12, in 14 innings pitched over his last two starts.
Walker faces a Braves lineup that is struggling to hit for average and is striking out too much. On top of that, while Ronald Acuna Jr. appears close to returning from a minor ankle injury, his status for this one is still up in the air.
The Mets still had trouble scoring runs against Tampa Bay’s solid pitching staff and Monday could be another tricky matchup as they go up against Max Fried.
The Braves lefty, who finished fifth in Cy Young voting last season, struggled early on then went to the IL with a hamstring injury. But he has looked like his old self since coming back, as Fried has allowed just two runs on six hits over his last 11 innings. Pitching should be the story early in this one.
Gerrit Cole Over 9.5 strikeouts (-115)
What Gerrit Cole has done for the New York Yankees to begin the 2021 campaign has been incredible. The right-hander has a very good 1.37 ERA and leads the AL in FIP (1.14), WHIP (0.68), and has an absolutely ridiculous strikeout-to-walk ratio of 26:1.
Cole is also racking up punchouts like he is Mike Tyson in his classic NES title. Cole already has 78 strikeouts this season, has 10 or more in five of his last seven starts, and Monday he goes up against the free-swinging Texas Rangers.
The Rangers rank 24th in team strikeouts getting rung up 9.74 times per game. While Cole hasn’t pitched against the Rangers since 2019, when he was still with the Astros, he recorded 10 or more strikeouts the last three times he faced them. We’re betting he makes it four in a row.
Diamondbacks-Dodgers five-inning total Under 3.5 (-110)
What in the world has gotten into Madison Bumgarner? The Arizona Diamondbacks’ starter looks rejuvenated and like his former dominant self. (We’re guessing he got a new horse on the ranch).
Whatever it is, it’s working. The lefty is on an incredible run at the moment, as Bumgarner has pitched to a 0.90 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP over his last five starts, which includes his seven-inning complete game in which he gave up no hits.
Next up for MadBum is the Angeles Dodgers, a team he absolutely loves facing. Despite the many years of the Dodgers fielding awesome lineups, Bumgarner has a 2.74 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 36 career starts against them. When you mix in the inconsistencies and injuries of this year’s edition of the Dodgers, MadBum has a good chance to keep rolling.
L.A. counters with Walker Buehler and the right-hander is quietly having another solid season. Buehler is pitching to a 3.45 ERA with a 0.90 WHIP in seven starts this season.
He faces a D-backs lineup that has been surprisingly potent, but injuries have held them back of late as they have scored two runs or fewer eight times in the last 12 games. Bet this one to be low-scoring early.
Yesterday's MLB record: 2-1, 0.91 units
Season MLB betting record: 65-70-3, -6.90 units
MLB betting card for May 17
- NYM-ATL five-inning total Under 4 (-110)
- Gerrit Cole Over 9.5 strikeouts (-115)
- ARI-LAD five-inning total Under 3.5 (-110)
Picks made on 5/17/2021 at 10:30 a.m. ET
MLB parlays
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