The MLB summer months are just around the corner and the player prop market is starting to heat up. We’re digging into today’s slate and finding our three favorite MLB player prop picks for Saturday, May 28.
Today, we dive into a former MVP's total bases market, hit an Under on Kansas City pitcher prop, and squeeze the last bit of value out of a run prop in the Phillies lineup.
MLB props for May 28
Picks made on 5/28/2022 at 9:00 am. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Free money Freeman
Freddie Freeman might not be going deep often with just four long balls on the season, but he has been scary consistent at the dish in his new environment in Los Angeles and currently leads the team with a .310 AVG. Over his last 15 games, he’s hitting over .300, and over his last 30 games, he’s also hitting over .300 — this guy is as consistent as they come and his multi-hit efforts on the season have been even more impressive.
Freeman collected his fourth four-hit night on Thursday and has seven three-hit games. He leads the league in doubles with 18 and faces right-hander Merrill Kelly, who he’s 5-for-10 lifetime against including 2-for-4 this year with a pair of doubles.
Freeman has no issues hitting left-handed pitching if he sees it out of the pen and this is also a group of Arizona relievers that ranks 28th in ERA on the season.
With a hot Mookie Betts in front of him and Trea Turner hitting behind him, Freeman has one of the best spots in any lineup in baseball hitting out of the LA two-hole.
We aren’t getting greedy here and taking his two-plus hits (+125 at FanDuel) and instead just hitting the Over on his 1.5 total bases, which is little shorter at -125 at bet365 and DraftKings.
Chase Field had optimal hitting conditions last night and if they open the roof again, we could see plenty of hits Saturday.
Pick: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (-125)
Singer off-key
Kansas City’s Bradey Singer has made just two starts this season and one of those was last week versus the Twins — the same team he’ll face tonight. Singer started the season in the bullpen but has made two recent starts, going seven innings in each but punching out just three Minnesota batters last Sunday.
The 25-year-old right-hander pitches to plenty of weak contact and relies on his sinker 45% of the time as opponents are hitting just .125 off of it. Batters, however, have been loading up on his slider (44%) and are hitting .325 off that offering. Singer is basically a two-pitch guy and with the Twins seeing him just six days ago, the advantage is seemingly not in the pitcher’s favor.
In that Sunday outing, Singer finished with three strikeouts, but the real indicator for this prop is that of his 95 total pitches, he generated just seven swings and misses.
Much like Brad Keller last night, Singer might have a long leash, but if he is effective, he's getting weak contact and easy outs.
We think his implied probability of 61.7% is too high to collect five strikeouts and we're looking to hit the Under for plus money. This is a young pitcher who had an ERA awfully close to 5.00 a season ago across 27 starts and faces a decent Minnesota lineup that scored 10 runs last night and saw this two-pitch pitcher very recently.
Pick: Brady Singer Under 4.5 strikeouts (+116)
Bohms away
The Philadelphia Phillies might be 2-3 SU this week, but it hasn’t been the offense that's been letting them down. Since Bryce Harper returned to the lineup last Saturday, the Phillies have scored at least four runs in each of their last seven games and the top of the order is getting hot.
This lineup offers a whole mix of skillsets and Alec Bohm in the two-hole has been a very underrated player in the prop market. He's hitting in front of Bryce Harper, who has a .971 OPS on the season and is hitting .344 this week alone. Following the reigning NL MVP is Nick Castellanos, who is busting out of a cold stretch as the clean-up hitter has three hits over his last two games and has collected an RBI in three straight.
The benefactor of Harper and Castellanos hitting is Bohm, who has six runs scored since Harper returned and has 17 runs over his last 30 games. He’s getting on base with his bat and seeing great pitches with a loaded lineup behind him.
Bohm has also handled Mets starter Taijuan Walker well in limited at-bats. The young third baseman is 4-for-10 against Walker with a home run. Walker has seen the Phillies three times already this season and Philadelphia tagged him for seven runs on nine hits in the last outing, where Bohm went 2-for-5 with a double and a run scored.
He’s hitting well himself and might have the two best slugging hitters in baseball behind him. We’ve been riding the Bohm run train all week and we’re taking the ride into an advantageous matchup today. We’ve lost a little bit of the value, as it was as high as +120 earlier in the week, but this is still a great play at -110.
Pick: Alec Bohm Over 0.5 runs scored (-110)
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