There are 13 games on the MLB schedule this Memorial Day, and the holiday means there will be betting value found on the diamond all day long, including in the player prop market.
Today, we look at a pair of total bases props for two of the game’s best pure swingers in Michael Brantley and Jose Ramirez. Then we ponder whether or not Zac Gallen can take advantage of the free-swinging Braves.
Check out our MLB player prop picks for Monday, May 30.
MLB props for May 30
Picks made on 5/30/2022 at 12:10 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Today’s best MLB prop bets
The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.
Brant(ley) recognition
Houston Astros outfielder Michael Brantley is in a really interesting groove at the plate. He’s locked in, but not exactly tearing the cover off the ball. But that’s good enough for us to jump on his total bases prop this afternoon against the Oakland Athletics.
Brantley continues to be one of the best pure hitters in baseball, collecting at least one knock in 15 of his last 17 games. That said, he’s hitting a good, not great, .293 over that span with a .856 OPS. But he’ll have a great chance to keep trending upward against Oakland’s Paul Blackburn.
While Blackburn has a great 1.70 ERA, his expected ERA is a much less sparkling 3.41 and he's giving up a .269 expected batting average to opponents this season. Blackburn doesn’t have swing-and-miss stuff, which can be a problem against a guy who consistently makes solid contact like Brantley.
So, it’s no surprise Brantley is one of those players who has given him problems in limited action. The lefty is 4-for-11 (.364) with two doubles in his career when facing Blackburn, striking out just once. He’s also hitting .298 when facing right-handers this season. Then he’ll face an A’s bullpen that ranks 22nd in WHIP and opponent batting average.
Brantley has also gone Over 1.5 total bases just six times in his recent hot stretch, but the plus money combined with the matchup against Blackburn makes the Over a solid bet today.
Pick: Michael Brantley Over 1.5 total bases (+110)
Jo-Ramming speed
Despite an 0-fer on Sunday, Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez is in another one of his patented hot streaks and he’ll look to keep that up when he and his teammates take the field against the Kansas City Royals on Monday.
Ramirez has hits in seven of his last nine games, going 11-for-33 (.333) over those games. But the most impressive part of this current run is that nine of those 11 hits have gone for extra bases, resulting in an impressive 1.330 OPS.
Today, he’ll face off against Royals prospect Jonathan Heasley. The right-hander is making just his fourth start of the season and he's still trying to find his good stuff at the big-league level. Heasley has an xERA of 6.37 and an opponent xBA of .271. The problem is he just isn’t missing bats, resulting in not only a low strikeout rate but he's serving up a lot of solid contact. This isn’t a recipe for success against Ramirez.
On top of that, Heasley hasn’t pitched more than five innings in any given start, which could mean several innings of work for a bullpen that ranks dead last in the majors in both WHIP and opponent batting average.
Happily take the plus money with Ramirez to go Over his total bases in this one.
Pick: Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
Zac ain't no hack
Arizona Diamondbacks starter Zac “without an h” Gallen has quietly become one of the best starters in baseball and he's a big reason why the D-Backs have one of the best rotations in the National League. That said, Gallen is coming off his worst start of the season and will look to bounce back when he takes the ball tonight against the Atlanta Braves.
Despite a tough outing against the Royals where he allowed six runs, Gallen still ranks among the league leaders in expected ERA (2.30) and expected batting average against (.193). And prior to his last start, he had allowed just five runs over his seven starts.
Tonight, he gets an interesting matchup against the Braves. Atlanta has really leaned into the “swing-for-the-fences” philosophy this season. And it has pretty much worked. They rank fifth in the MLB in home runs, but their 9.81 strikeouts per game rank dead last. So too does their strikeout rate when facing right-handed pitching.
On top of that, the Braves have struggled to get much offense going against right-handers, as the team ranks 20th in batting average and 18th in OPS when facing righties this season.
Gallen also has one career start against the Braves, coming last April, where he held them scoreless on one hit over seven innings while striking out six. Look for Gallen to get back on track by taking advantage of a free-swinging Braves team and take the Under on his hits allowed prop. A number he has stayed below in five of his eight starts.
Pick: Zac Gallen Under 4.5 hits allowed (-102)
Did you know that if you played today’s MLB props as a parlay, you could win $75.26 on a $10 bet?
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