Today’s MLB Prop Picks: A Good Day to Be a Pitcher

September is motoring by and with it, a ton of value in the MLB prop market with more eyes shifting to other sports. With that said, I’m digging into every baseball market and hunting for value. The new Covers player prop page is also a great new tool for finding gems. 

Today, I’m betting against two of the worst offenses in baseball at pitcher-friendly parks and fading a hobbling Blue Jay who is ice cold at the dish.

MLB props for September 9

• Lynch Over 15.5 outs (-121)
• Giolito Over 5.5 Ks (+115)
• Gurriel Under 0.5 hits (+195)

Picks made on 9/09/2022 at 9:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.

Today’s best MLB prop bets

The odds widgets below represent the best odds currently available for each betting market at regulated sportsbooks.

Fading the Tigers

Here we are again fading the awful lineup of the Tigers, but because it’s Kansas City’s Daniel Lynch, the books are feeding us a great price.

Books are giving us an out total of just 15.5 for the Royals' starter who has been getting hit recently but still projects to get 90 to 100 pitches against the worst offense in baseball in a home run-suppressing park at the K. 

Lynch just saw the Tigers in his most recent start and allowed four runs, but the lefty was clean through four innings before giving up some long balls in his final frame. The park should help him today as well as an opposition that sees the fourth-fewest pitches per plate appearance and has the second-highest strike percentage per pitch at 65.8%.

His strikeout total (4.5) is also showing value as THE BAT projects him for 101 pitches, 18.5 outs, and 5.61 punchouts. 

Daniel Lynch Prop: Over 15.5 outs (-120 at bet365)

Gio Grande

The Southside’s Lucas Giolito has a 5.40 ERA over his last seven starts but most of that damage came in a seven-run outing vs. the Astros. Today, he’ll face the worst offense in baseball that isn’t named the Tigers. 

Oakland is a Top 10 team in K rate on the season and also over the last 30 days. Giolito hasn’t seen the A’s this season which is an advantage to the pitcher, and pitching at the Coliseum is always a good thing for a starter who struggles with keeping the ball in the yard. 

On top of a great matchup and environment, Giolito will also likely have Yasmani Grandal framing pitches. The backstop grades positively as a framer, per baseball savant.

Dylan Cease mowed down nine Oakland batters last night over his six innings and Giolito could find similar success as today’s starter has a 25.3% K% which ranks 16th in baseball. He’s projected for over 18 outs so a K/inning is all we need here for plus money.

Lucas Giolito Prop: Over 5.5 strikeouts (+115 at FanDuel)

Limping Lourdes

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. exited Wednesday’s game vs. the Orioles with a left hamstring injury, and although the diagnosis came back more positive than negative, the outfielder is not a lock to play today but books are giving us odds as if he is a shoo-in to start.

His Under 0.5 hits is paying a sexy +190 at DraftKings, and after the Jays took three of four from the Orioles to move 4.5 games up on them in the Wild Card race, interim manager John Schneider doesn’t have to rush Gurriel back.

The best angle we have here is if the outfielder comes in for a pinch-hit and our book grades him as action. But even if he does start, there is a pinch-hit risk, and the once .300 hitter is 4-for-32 over his last seven games and hitting further down the order. He will also be running at less than 100% which is important as he puts a lot of balls in play.

Lastly, he’s seen Texas starter Dane Dunning five times over his career and is 0-for-5 with zero walks. 

This line will get pulled immediately when the lineups are released and he isn’t starting. 

Lourdes Gurriel Prop: Under 0.5 hits (+190 at DraftKings)

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