MLB Prop Picks and Best Bets: Muncy Packs Punch Against Detroit

Prop bet #1: Crossed by Chris

We targeted the Atlanta Braves in the strikeout market yesterday and came up just short after Aaron Nola was squeezed a bit. Fool me once... we're back again targeting the Atlanta bats.

The reasoning is similar — the Braves having nothing to play for the rest of the regular season is one of them. However, beyond that, this is a good matchup for Christopher Sanchez.

Sanchez has exceeded this number in seven straight games, one of the longest streaks in baseball a pitcher has gone Over his nightly strikeout total. The last time he faced this Braves team? He served up a double-digit strikeout total of 10. The Braves still swing a bunch (Top 5 in the league in that regard), and they still chase tons of pitches (Top 10). 

Sanchez should be able to use a changeup that's created a 40% whiff rate to get Over this short number tonight. It's not a pitch Atlanta has hit well this season, and it's one that he's used to dominate — especially in his most recent appearances on the mound. 

Christopher Sanchez prop: Over 3.5 strikeouts (-130)

Prop bet #2: Mad Max

Next up: we're laying some juice here on a very hot hitter. This time, we're backing Max Muncy, who has the longest active hit streak in the league with nine consecutive. 

Muncy gets a matchup with Detroit Tigers right-handed pitcher Miguel Diaz. The data on this season for Diaz is limited, but what we do now is he's allowed a good amount of contact, although he's posted a good amount of numbers.

The thing I like about this matchup for Muncy is that he'll force Diaz to get in against him to a certain degree. Diaz is a very chase-reliant pitcher, ranking in the elite category of that metric, along with getting swings and misses outside the strikeout zone. That's something that won't work well against Muncy.

Muncy could very well be the most patient hitter in baseball, routinely works deep in counts, and is near the league's top in walks.

He tilts this matchup in his favor with his patience. I'm banking on Diaz not being as effective as he is outside the zone and Muncy ripping one when he's forced to throw strikes. 

Max Muncy prop: To get a hit (-165 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #3: Dandy Yandy

I priced this closer to a coin flip, so I jumped at the chance to get it at plus money. Diaz has gone Over this number in three of the last six games and although he's struggled against the man who'll take the mound opposing him in Patrick Sandoval, there are reasons to think he has some success tonight. 

Sandoval is going to show Diaz a ton of offspeed stuff with the changeup and slider making up over 50% of his arsenal. This is a good thing for Diaz as he leads the Tampa Bay Rays in hard-hit rate against the slider and run value. Against the changeup, he's not been quite as dominant, but he's still second on the Rays in hard-hit rate against that pitch.

A bet on the bases tonight for Diaz is closely akin to betting on him to get a hit. That's because the pitches he'll see the most are the ones he's crushed this season. I'll take my chances here, especially at plus money and especially with a hitter who's been so hot. 

Yandy Diaz prop: Over 1.5 total bases (+115 at DraftKings)