Rangers vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Brown Neutralizes Texas' Bats

After dropping the first game of the series, the Houston Astros will look to avenge a rare home defeat against their rivals when they face the Texas Rangers on Saturday. Rookie of the Year candidate Hunter Brown will take the mound for the 6-8 Astros, who sit as -180 favorites heading into this contest.

Brown will be looking to take advantage of a Texas lineup that isn’t making strong contact this season. Find out how that ties into our best bet for this game by reading our MLB picks and predictions for Rangers vs. Astros on April 15. 

Rangers vs Astros odds

Rangers vs Astros predictions

The Texas Rangers were very excited to see what top prospect Josh Jung could produce this season, especially after he impressed manager Bruce Bochy during spring training. So far, the young third baseman is hitting .277 with two home runs through his first 12 games.

However, Jung isn’t doing very well so far against same-sided pitchers. In 44 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this season, he’s managed just nine hits while striking out a dozen times. He’s slugging just .325 with an OPS of .620, a far cry from his 1.714 mark in seven at-bats against lefties.

Jung has done the majority of his damage on fastballs, with a .348 average accounting for eight of his 13 hits. Meanwhile, breaking balls have been the bane of his existence. So far this season, Jung’s faced 82 of them so far in 2023 and is hitting just .200 with a .186 xBA. More importantly, he’s struck out six times on sliders and curveballs.

That’s good news for Houston Astros starter Hunter Brown. The Astros rookie is coming off an outstanding start where he gave up just two hits in seven innings, and 61% of his pitches this season have been either curveballs or sliders. While his chase rate isn’t extremely high, he’s in the 50th percentile in whiff rate, 80th percentile in barrel %, and 65th percentile in strikeouts.

Jung is in the bottom half of all hitters this season in hard-hit rate and strikeout rate, but he’s also 16th percentile in whiff rate and 29th percentile in chase rate. Jung is hitting in the bottom half of the order and may only get three at-bats in this game, especially if Brown is able to pitch as well as he did against Minnesota.

With bet365 offering under 0.5 hits at +155, the implied odds of 40.82% are quite favorable for a situation that is closer to 50-50. That’s more than good enough to be your best bet for this matchup.

My best bet: Josh Jung u0.5 hits (+155 at bet365)

Rangers vs Astros moneyline analysis

This could be a rough day for the Rangers. With Seager out of the lineup, they’re going to need a lineup of struggling hitters to come through against a pitcher who doesn’t give up a lot of hard contact.

Texas won the first game of the series with a 6-2 win on Friday night, as Nathaniel Lowe drove in three runs for just the Rangers’ 10th win at Houston in the last 36 games. However, after struggling Houston starter Luis Garcia left, the Astros pen gave up just one run in four innings.

That won’t be the case on Saturday. Brown is adept at forcing weak contact and ground balls, and aside from Adolis Garcia, nobody in the lineup has a hard-hit percentage above 40%. In fact, Lowe is sitting at 33.3% and Marcus Semien is at 34.1%.

Both of Houston’s runs on Friday night came off solo blasts, and now the Astros lineup will face a pitcher in Jon Gray who ranks near the bottom of the league so far in barrel rate and expected slugging percentage. While he will get his fair share of strikeouts, he will also give up some loud hits and has already given up three home runs this season. 

Gray’s road ERA last season was nearly a run higher than his ERA at home, and he’s not going to be afforded the benefits of a pitcher-friendly park this time around. With four Astros holding a hard hit % better than 44%, it could be a long day. The Astros should cover the 1.5-run line in a game that sees Texas as a massive underdog.

Rangers vs Astros Over/Under analysis

The last four meetings between these two teams in Houston have resulted in wins for the Under bettors, including last night’s 6-2 final. I would lean Under in this one as well, with a total of 7.5 runs.

Both Gray and Brown are solid strikeout pitchers, and Brown showed last season he can keep the ball down at home. While he did get beat around a bit in his home debut this season (giving up four runs on six hits in just 4.2 innings), the Astros starter allowed just five hits and no runs in 10 1/3 innings at home in 2022.

Meanwhile, Gray is outperforming his xERA by more than three runs entering tonight and could get shelled by the likes of Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker, should he struggle with walks.

I doubt the Rangers will be able to put together what’s needed to help cover. Even if they get some hits, Brown should be able to induce enough ground balls to limit the damage against the weak contact of the Texas hitters.

Rangers vs Astros game info

Rangers vs Astros betting preview

Starting pitchers

Jon Gray (1-1, 3.00 ERA): Gray spent his first seven seasons in the league with Colorado, sporting a slightly above-average ERA+ of 107. In his first year with the Rangers in 2022, the 31-year-old right-hander went 7-7, finishing with an ERA of 3.96 and a FIP of 3.80.

Hunter Brown (1-0, 3.09 ERA): One of the preseason favorites for AL Rookie of the Year, Brown had a rough outing to start the season but is coming off a win over Minnesota in which he gave up two hits in seven innings while striking out seven hitters. His upper-90s fastball is offset by a low-90s slider and mid-80s curve, allowing him to limit quality contact. Rangers had just three hits in 16 at-bats a year ago, with no walks and three strikeouts.

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