It’s crunch-time in the NL Wild Card race and the Arizona Diamondbacks can’t take their foot off the gas as they host the Texas Rangers this afternoon.
Arizona starts the day with a two-game cushion in the Wild Card standings after breezing to a 6-0 win in last night’s clash behind two home runs from Christian Walker. My Rangers vs. Diamondbacks predictions and MLB picks see the Texas bats making more noise in a high-scoring rematch on Wednesday, September 11.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks prediction
My best bet
Over 8.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
My analysis
Heading into the final weeks of the season, this Arizona Diamondbacks offense continues to top the MLB charts, and that’s the single biggest reason to believe the D-Backs can repeat their 2023 playoff heroics.
It’s also the biggest driver for me in picking the Over today. Arizona leads the majors in runs, OBP, and OPS, and sits second in hits and batting average. In short, we know what we’re getting with a D-Backs lineup that’s averaging 5.43 rpg this year, even with Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Gabriel Moreno currently on the IL.
But I’m also counting on the Texas Rangers packing more of a punch at the plate today. Though they flailed their way to just three hits while getting blanked by Zac Gallen and the Arizona bullpen last night, the visitors had scored four or more runs in six of their past eight games prior to that dud.
Merrill Kelly’s recent struggles have to be factored in too. The D-Backs starter has given up 20 runs over his past five starts, and he posted a disappointing 6.75 ERA in August.
The trends support the case for the Over, which is 8-2 in Arizona’s past 10 games and 83-56 overall for the hosts in 2024. September has been good to the Rangers so far, with series wins over the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Angels, and they’ve cashed in the Over in six of their last nine outings.
Meanwhile, the D-Backs have hit the team total Over in 17 of their last 24 games at Chase Field, and I predict both teams will keep the scoreboard busy here.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay (SGP)
Over 8.5
Marcus Semien Over 1.5 total bases
Cody Bradford Over 3.5 strikeouts
It’s unquestionably been a down year for Marcus Semien, who’s hitting just .236, but he looked sharper at the plate last week on the way to seven hits in five contests, including a home run over the weekend.
While Semien went 0-for-4 last night, he has a hit against Kelly in limited at-bats and could be one of the sparks for this Texas offense today from the leadoff spot. I’m adding the Over on 1.5 total bases for my SGP.
Rangers starter Cody Bradford hasn’t given up much over his last six starts and he posted a 3.12 ERA in August. His strikeout tallies can be erratic, but he’s had at least four punch-outs in five of his past seven appearances on the mound.
Though I’ve picked the Over on 8.5 total runs, I expect Bradford to get through enough innings to nail this prop, especially with the Arizona hitters having seen very little of the lefty, who’s in his second year in the majors.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks odds
Rangers vs Diamondbacks live odds
Rangers vs Diamondbacks opening odds
- Moneyline: Texas +123 | Arizona -133
- Run line: Texas +1.5 | Arizona -1.5
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Rangers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis
- The D-Backs enter as favorites, backed by a 40-31 mark at home, and they’ve won 56 of their last 88 contests to stay in the Wild Card mix.
- The Rangers have won five of the past six meetings between these teams but their road record has dipped to 29-41 after yesterday’s loss.
- Texas’ improved September form has resulted in covering the run line in six of its last nine games, and the visitors scored 21 runs in their three-game set against the Yankees earlier this month.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks trend
The D-Backs have hit the F5 team total Over in 14 of their past 20 outings. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks.
Rangers vs Diamondbacks game info
| Location: | Chase Field, Phoenix, AZ |
| Date: | Wednesday, 9-11-2024 |
| First pitch: | 3:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | BSSW, ARID |
| Rangers starting pitcher: | Cody Bradford (5-2, 3.05 ERA) |
| Diamondbacks starting pitcher: | Merrill Kelly (4-0, 4.08 ERA) |
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