The Texas Rangers are on a heater and despite snapping their eight-game winning streak with a loss on Wednesday, things are very much looking up for this team. Will the good times continue to roll tonight in the Bay Area?
Let’s break down Rangers vs. Giants in our MLB picks and predictions.
Rangers vs Giants odds
Rangers vs Giants predictions
Jon Gray’s been an interesting case in 2023. His ground ball rate has dropped to the second-lowest point of his career while his fly ball rate now stands at a career-high 26.2%. It’s made a ton of sense given the Rangers’ outfield defense ranks 12th in outs above average, but what hasn’t really made sense is Gray’s drop in strikeouts.
His whiff rate has remained more or less the same over the last three seasons with a very marginal difference year over year, but his strikeout rate is down five points from where it was last year. This tells me the potential for strikeouts is very much there, and with Gray’s newfound approach of pitching to contact, he should feel right at home in San Francisco tonight, considering it’s incredibly hard to hit home runs at Oracle Park.
All that’s to say, the Rangers are the play here. I like how Gray matches up with the Giants, particularly when you consider they’re in the Bottom 5 of the league in wRC+ over the last two weeks. On the other side of the coin, the Rangers are the second-best offense in baseball dating back to August 2, when Corey Seager returned from injury, and they rank second against lefties.
Texas should surge here and take the straight-up victory.
My best bet: Rangers moneyline (-108 at FanDuel)
Rangers vs Giants same-game parlay
Rangers moneyline (-108)
Jon Gray 4+ strikeouts (-290)
Corey Seager 2+ total bases (-125)
Just to elaborate a bit more on the Rangers, they’re also second in wRC+ vs. lefties, which has a lot to do with Seager and his .993 OPS within the split. The Giants are getting set to start off with left-handed reliever Scott Alexander, who’s coming off a disastrous start just a few days ago that saw him allow three runs without recording an out.
Fellow lefty Alex Wood will be one of the primary pitchers to follow. Considering he’s had a disastrous season, it’s fair to say the Rangers — and Seager, in particular — are in a great position to mash on Friday.
I mentioned the potential Gray has in his arm earlier considering his stable whiff rate. He should be able to produce at least four punchouts against a team striking out roughly 23% of the time over the last two weeks. He’s done so in six of his previous seven starts and has racked up 12 Ks in his last two outings, spanning 10 innings.
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Rangers vs Giants moneyline and Over/Under analysis
Jakob Junis will likely be the third pitcher to eat innings here aside from Alexander and Wood, and while he’s been good, I’m far too scared of the other two pitchers to back the total in this game. It would seem, with Texas’ ability to hit, that the visitors will put an Under in serious jeopardy here.
Gray has allowed 11 earned runs in the last two games, and while he does match up pretty well with San Francisco, he’s too great of a liability in his own right. With that, I would strongly recommend taking the Over if you’re picking a side on the total.
The notable split here is on the Rangers. While 82% of the money is on the visitors, they’ve accounted for 92% of the handle on the moneyline. There have also been some sharp signals on Texas with some big bets recorded on the Rangers as well.
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Trend to know
The Rangers have hit the 1st five innings (F5) moneyline in 64 of their last 106 games (+24.15 Units / 15% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs Giants
Rangers vs Giants game info
| Location: | Oracle Park, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Friday, August 11, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 10:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Apple TV+ |
Starting pitchers
Jon Gray (7-5, 3.72 ERA): Gray’s season has taken a turn for the worst lately. He owned a 5.48 ERA in the month of July and began August by coughing up five runs on seven hits and two walks to the Marlins last week. He’s trending further and further towards his 4.46 xERA.
Scott Alexander (6-2, 4.01 ERA): The veteran lefty will be making his sixth appearance as the opener for San Francisco. In those outings, he owns a 10.38 ERA in just 4 1/3 innings. His most recent start came on Tuesday against the Angels where he allowed three runs on three hits without recording an out.
