The Tampa Bay Rays kick off a seven-game road trip against the Los Angeles Angels on Monday with ace Tyler Glasnow on the mound.
In what would have been a marquee pitching matchup, Glasnow was scheduled to take on Shohei Ohtani, but the dynamic two-way stud was scratched Monday afternoon after getting hit by a pitch in the elbow in Los Angeles' loss to the Texas Rangers yesterday. What a letdown. Instead, struggling lefty Jose Quintana will get the ball for the Angels.
Here are our best free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Angels, with first pitch scheduled for 9:38 p.m. ET in Anaheim.
Rays vs Angels odds
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MLB Sharp Money and Line Movement Report
By Patrick EversonLos Angeles was an even-money underdog with Shohei Ohtani set to pitch, while Tampa Bay was -120 at BetMGM Nevada. Then Ohtani was scratched over concern about his right elbow, which was hit by a pitch in Sunday's 2-0 loss at Seattle. As of 7 p.m. ET, the Rays are -170. "Tickets are pretty much dead even, but all the money is on the Angels, mainly because of a $10,000 bet on the Angels. It's a really lightly bet game," BetMGM Nevada's Scott Shelton said. The total moved from 7.5 to 8, with ticket count and money running dead even.
Check out the full line movement for this gameRays vs Angels betting preview
Starting pitchers
Tyler Glasnow (3-1, 1.67 ERA): Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Corbin Burnes — those are the only pitchers who rank higher than Glasnow in WAR. He is fifth in ERA (fourth in FIP), sixth in strikeout rate, and sixth in WHIP. Any meaningful pitching stat is going to have Glasnow near the top of the leaderboard. Not only is his stuff elite, he's turning into a workhorse for a Rays team that loves to utilize its bullpen, working six-plus innings in all but one start. In Glasnow's worst outing of the season (five runs and his only two homers allowed) he still struck out 10. Enough said.
Jose Quintana (0-2, 10.13 ERA): The veteran left-hander got rocked in his first two starts before turning in a solid performance April 21 by punching out eight batters over a season-high five innings. He did walk four but it was most certainly a step in the right direction after he only threw five innings combined his first two outings and allowed 11 runs. But he couldn't build on that and was crushed again in his last start, going 3 1-3 innings, while allowing five runs on six hits. Quintana is striking out more batters than ever but his walk rate is nearly triple his career average and his pitches are consistently getting hit.
Weather
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Key injuries
Rays: Collin McHugh RP (Out), Peter Fairbanks RP (Out), Ji-Man Choi 1B (Out).
Angels: Juan Lagares OF (Out), Felix Pena RP (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Rays are 14-5 in their last 19 meetings against the Angels. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Angels.
Moneyline pick
The Rays are coming off a much-needed win over the Houston Astros on Sunday, snapping a three-game losing streak and avoiding a sweep in the process. They're 3-7 since reeling off a season-high five-game winning streak but get to start off their road trip against the Angels with their No. 1 arm.
Glasnow is a power pitcher who attacks hitters with elite velocity — a heater that sits upper-90s and can touch 100, and a hard slider just shy of 90 mph. He also has a devastating curveball that doesn’t get touched and has the swing-and-miss stuff that is capable of delivering a no-hitter on any given start.
He gives the Rays a major advantage in this one with the Angels countering with Quintana, who has been tattooed in three of his four starts.
Now that the Rays have taken the kid gloves off Glasnow (he only threw 100-plus pitches three times in 34 starts with Tampa Bay before this season but has reached that mark twice already this year), there might only be a handful of starting pitchers better or more valuable than him. He consistently gives his team a chance to win every time he gets the ball.
We expect him to do just that tonight against the Angels. Back the Rays as a slight favorite (especially before this line starts moving with Ohtani out).
PREDICTION: Rays (-110)
Over/Under pick
Glasnow has been dominant but runs into a top-tier offense for tonight's game. Can the Angels, who rank third in slugging, second in FanGraphs' weighted runs created plus, seventh in runs per game, and tied for fifth in homers, do damage against one of the American League Cy Young favorites? We wouldn't bank on it.
The fireballer has allowed one earned run or fewer in five of his six starts and has struck out 10-plus in half of those outings. He has good enough control and doesn't get burned by the long ball — he ranks Top 10 in the AL in home-run-to-fly-ball rate — so capitalizing off him is a difficult task. Sure, any lineup that features the game's best player in Mike Trout, alongside Anthony Rendon, Ohtani (if he's given the green light to bat in this one), and hot-hitting Jared Walsh, can turn things sideways in a hurry. But Glasnow is elite and can silence any offense, and he'll be doing that with lots of heat — only Jacob deGrom and Ohtani have thrown more 100-mph pitches.
Tampa's bullpen has been worked hard (tied for first in the majors in innings) and hasn't been great, though we're banking on Glasnow going deeper into this game and helping limit how many arms the Rays need to turn to.
The total is a tough one, with both teams Top 5 in the AL at going Over. But Glasnow can put up zeros, leaving the Rays to deliver all the offense, and that's enough for us to side with the Under.
PREDICTION: Under 8.0 (-114)
Rays vs Angels betting card
- Rays (-110)
- Under 8.0 (-114)
Picks made on 5/03/2021 at 2:35 p.m. ET
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