Rays vs Blue Jays Predictions, Picks, Odds: Rays Rock Kikuchi

The Toronto Blue Jays ended the Tampa Bay Rays’ historic start to the year with a 6-3 win last night, sending the visitors their first loss after starting the season 13-0.

Now the Jays enter the afternoon affair as a slight favorite after closing as a plus-money dog last night. The roof will likely be open at Rogers Center and the Jays, who are 8-2 SU in their last 10, will send out Yusei Kikuchi to face Tampa starter/opener, Calvin Faucher.

With the Toronto starter looking more like the 2022 version of himself and not the spring-training one, the Rays could be putting up crooked numbers before they even see the Jays’ bullpen. 

Find out where best bets and MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Blue Jays on Saturday, April 15.

Rays vs Blue Jays odds

Rays vs Blue Jays predictions

Yusei Kikuchi looked decent in his opening start vs. the light-hitting Royals, but got crushed by the Angels in his last start. He has eight punchouts through 9.1 innings and has cut down on the walks. However, being more in the zone hasn’t been good for the lefty, who currently sits in the Bottom 12% in hard-hit percentage, exit velocity, and xSLG. Kikuchi sat in the Bottom 6% last season in terms of average exit velocity and those numbers have been worse to begin the 2023 season.

Making this an even more difficult matchup for the Blue Jays starter is how the Rays can nullify the lefty’s strength which is the strikeout. Tampa has an elite K% of 19.3%. They’re also the No.1 offense in baseball and can certainly create a short start for Kikuchi if catching too much of the plate. 

Making things worse for Kikuchi is his strikeout pitches. His best Whiff% pitches from a season ago were his slider and changeup and currently, opponents are hitting .391 vs. them and his fastball isn’t missing as many bats either. 

The starter was also left in to take a beating in his last start, where he allowed six runs over 99 pitches. He has a better bullpen situation today as all the arms are available for the Jays, thanks to an off day on Thursday. THE BAT is projecting 87 pitches, 15.2 outs, and 4.1 strikeouts.

The market is moving on his Under 4.5 strikeouts, which is as short as -150 as of this morning and is a play at -125. There are multiple outs here, as Kikichu could get his 90 pitches and fall short vs. a low K% team, or the more likely scenario where the Rays pummel the lefty and he’s done early. 

My best bet: Yusei Kikuchi Under 4.5 strikeouts (-125 at SIA)

Rays vs Blue Jays moneyline analysis

The Rays likely turning to the bullpen by the second or third inning, as starter Calvin Faucher hasn’t thrown more than 33 pitches this year and will make his first MLB start. That leaves plenty of outs for this Rays bullpen.

Tampa didn’t burn any good arms last night and has its elite pen ready for a long day. That shouldn’t be a problem, as the Tampa relievers have the second-best ERA in baseball at 2.18 and opponents are hitting a league-low .180 off the group. It’s not the best matchup for the Toronto offense as Tampa manager Kevin Cash can mix and match his relievers all day vs. a lineup he is very familiar with. 

The Rays’ bullpen could also be pitching with some run support as the Tampa offense, which ranks first in wOBA, SLG, and wRC+ while also striking out at one of the lowest rates in baseball, gets to face Kikuchi.

The Toronto starter was annihilated in his last start vs. a much weaker Angels lineup and now has to navigate a lineup that is hitting .312 off of southpaws and has launched the most home runs vs. lefties in baseball.

Kikuchi’s best trait is overpowering batters and missing bats, but facing a Tampa team that doesn’t strike out and puts a ton of balls in play is a bad matchup for Kikuchi. 

Last season, the Toronto starter had an OPS against of over 1.000 vs. the first five batters of the order and a near-7.00 ERA in the first inning. This year, the middle of the order is killing him again as the three-through-five hitters are 8-for-13 with three home runs and he has a 13.50 ERA in the first inning through two starts.

There’s a lot to like in the Rays today at even money and with their bullpen strength, I’m happy to take them on the full-game moneyline.   

Rays vs Blue Jays Over/Under analysis

This total is sitting at 10 after closing at 9 yesterday. 

Despite using an opener who has been hit hard, Faucher still has a great cutter that opponents are hitting just .111 this season. He won’t see the lineup twice and if he can navigate the top of this order, he could hand things over to a trusting Tampa bullpen that has been outstanding this season.

I’m not expecting the Jays to put up more than four runs today but with Kikuchi likely to give up his fair share and a Toronto bullpen that has some question marks in the middle-innings role, I’m off this full-game total.

However, I’m happy to jump on the Rays’ team total Over 4.5 vs. Kikuchi and would hit the F5 team total Over 2.5.

Kikuchi was great in the spring but we’re starting to see the 2022 version of him without the walks. He’s cleaned up the command issues but is also getting pummeled early when he’s in the zone. He’s getting barrelled, hit hard, and faces the best offense in baseball this afternoon. 

The Toronto starter looked decent in his opening start vs. the Royals, but that is also one of the weakest lineups in baseball. If the Halos can tag him, the Rays should be able to keep the line moving this afternoon. Los Angeles launched three home runs vs. Kikuchi in his last start. 

Rays vs Blue Jays game info

Rays vs Blue Jays betting preview

Starting pitchers

Calvin Faucher (0-0, 4.50 ERA): Faucher hasn’t pitched more than two innings this season and this will be his first start in the big leagues. The right-hander has predominantly been a reliever in his affiliated career and throws a slider, sinker, and a curveball. His sinker sits in the mid-90s and has been tough to hit (.111 AVG), but his slider and curveball have been hit hard and his slider, which he throws nearly 50% of the time, gets hit often and for power. He currently sits in the Bottom 8% in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit percentage, and barrel percentage. 

Yusei Kikuchi (1-0, 6.75 ERA): Kikuchi fell back to earth in his last start, giving up six runs on nine hits to the Angels in another afternoon start. He has cut down on the walks which was a massive issue last season but when guys are hitting the lefty, they’re hitting him hard. The starter finished last year as one of the hardest-hit pitchers at an average exit velocity of 91.6 mph and those numbers are up already over two starts to begin the season.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Blue Jays are 0-4 in Kikuchi’s last four starts with five days of rest. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Blue Jays

Weather

Pages related to this topic