On Friday, the Tampa Bay Rays will look to earn its second win in a row over the Seattle Mariners, who have now lost four in a row and eight of their last nine.
The Mariners do have a huge advantage on the hill in this one, so it’ll be interesting to see if that helps them stop their slide. Will Seattle get back in the win column here?
You’ll want to keep reading our free MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Mariners on Saturday, May 7.
Rays vs Mariners odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The odds on this game haven’t changed much since they first became available. The Mariners were -125 originally, and they’re still pretty much right there. The highest you’ll find them at is -134 and the lowest is still -125. The total, which opened at 7, is now down at 6.5 on a few sportsbooks, which are all offering plus-money to take the Under at that number.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Rays vs Mariners predictions
Picks made on 5/06/2022 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Rays vs Mariners game info
• Location: T-Mobile Field, Seattle, WA
• Date: Friday, May 6, 2022
• First pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
• TV: Apple TV+
Rays vs Mariners betting preview
Starting pitchers
Matt Wisler RHP (1-0, 1.50 ERA): Wisler is going to be opening this game for the Rays, but it’s lefty Josh Fleming that is going to handle most of the work in this one. Fleming has a 6.32 ERA in five appearances this season, and he has given up three or more runs in three of his last four outings. The lefty has also pitched less than four innings in all of those appearances.
Logan Gilbert RHP (4-0, 0.64 ERA): Gilbert showed a ton of promise in his rookie season with the Mariners, and he has taken things to a whole other level early this year. Gilbert has allowed one or fewer earned runs in all five of his starts this season, and he pitched 5 2-3 shutout innings against this Rays offense on April 26. Gilbert struck out seven batters in that start, and he gave up only two hits.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Rays: Ji-Man Choi 1B (Out), Chris Mazza P (Out), Francisco Mejia C (Out), Shane Baz P (Out), Luis Patino P (Out), Nick Anderson P (Out), Tyler Glasnow P (Out), Phoenix Sanders P (Out).
Mariners: Mitch Haniger OF (Out), Evan White 1B (Out), Sergio Romo P (Out), Casey Sadler P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Mariners are 6-1 in their last seven games as favorites. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mariners
Rays vs Mariners picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
The Mariners nearly pulled off a comeback win over the Rays in last night’s game, as they went down 4-0 and ended up falling just short in a 4-3 defeat. Seattle should, however, feel pretty good about finding ways to get some runners home against Shane McClanahan and a very good Tampa Bay bullpen.
The Mariners will now have a little confidence in their ability to score against the Rays relievers, and they’ll also have a big advantage on the hill in this game. Whereas Tampa Bay is throwing out a mediocre pitcher to handle most of its innings here, Seattle is sending an impressive up-and-coming starter to the mound.
Logan Gilbert is in the midst of a breakout season for the Mariners, and he actually completely shut this Rays offense down just over a week ago. The righty pitched 5 2-3 shutout innings against Tampa Bay, and he also struck out seven batters in what was an 8-4 win for Seattle.
The 24-year-old also gave up only two hits, and there’s no reason to believe that he can’t turn in another great start here. Gilbert might not ultimately shut out this Rays' lineup again, but it’s fair to expect a quality start here.
That should be more than enough in a game against Fleming, who has allowed at least three earned runs in three of his last four outings. The lefty has also given up those runs in a short period of time, which puts a lot of pressure on the rest of the Rays' bullpen. There’s a reason Tampa Bay lost all three of those poor outings.
Prediction: Mariners moneyline (-125 at BetMGM)
Over/Under analysis
The Over is 12-3-1 in Seattle’s last 16 games against left-handed starters, and last night’s game either went Over or pushed with the number being 6.5 or 7 everywhere.
This game won’t feature a lefty “starting”, but Fleming is expected to eat a majority of the innings for Tampa Bay in this game. On top of that, the Over also happens to be 6-2 in the last eight games that the Mariners have played as favorites. There’s really no reason for this number to be so low, as the starting pitching just isn’t good enough for it to be dipping below 7.
Even in Gilbert’s great start in his last meeting with the Rays, the teams still combined to score a total of 12 runs in that one. It’s highly unlikely that the righty will be anywhere near as good as he was in that last outing.
Overall, it’s hard to lay off the Over in a game like this. This isn’t anything like last night’s matchup between McClanahan and Robbie Ray.
Prediction: Over 6.5 (-120 at DraftKings)
Best bet
The Mariners nearly hit the four-run mark in last night’s game, which was against one of the Rays’ best starters. Now, Seattle gets a look at one of the worst pitchers Tampa Bay has to offer.
Fleming has given up three or more runs in three of his last four trips to the hill, and he just hasn’t looked comfortable on the mound this year. Given his struggles in such short periods of time pitching, the Mariners have an opportunity to pounce early and really score a good amount of runs.
This Seattle team is too good to consistently be struggling to score, even without Haniger in the lineup. Look for the Mariners to break through and score somewhere around five runs in this one.
Pick: Mariners Team Total Over 3.5 (+102 at Unibet)
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