Rays vs Mets Predictions, Picks, Odds: Verlander Won't Vex Road Underdog Rays

The Tampa Bay Rays bring their MLB-leading 31-11 record into Citi Field tonight as opener Jalen Beeks faces Justin Verlander and the struggling New York Mets as +140 road dogs with a total of 8.5.

Betting with the Rays (+16.21 units) has been much more profitable than the Mets (-11.91 units) this year, and considering the home side is 4-6 SU in its last 10 vs. Washington, Colorado, and Cincinnati, even a Verlander start shouldn’t worry bettors from taking the best team in baseball as a decent dog.

Find out where my best bet lies in our MLB picks and predictions for Rays vs. Mets on Tuesday, May 16.

Rays vs Mets odds

Rays vs Mets predictions

The Mets have been a losing team all season (and over the last three weeks), and have gone 9-15 SU over their last 26 games vs. some of the worst teams in baseball in Washington, Detroit, and Colorado. They haven’t won a series over that stretch, and although they’re facing an opener today in Jalen Beeks, I think the pitching matchup is driving this price too far in favor of the home side.

Justin Verlander has made two starts since missing the first five weeks of the season and has pitched well, but has also seen the Reds and Tigers. He’s received next to no run support in those games where his offense had a plus matchup, and even had the advantage of playing in hitters’ parks.

Beeks will likely see two innings and give way to Yonny Chirinos, who could eat five to six innings, which is something I’m happy to get at +140 on the moneyline with. Batters are just hitting .167 off of Chirinos with a .263 SLG, and the Rays are 4-1 when Chirinos pitches the middle innings this season.

This is not a typical opener situation, as the New York offense does not have a favorable matchup, and Kevin Cash can play the matchup game in the later innings with one of the best bullpens in baseball.

This Tampa Bay moneyline can still cash even if Verlander has a quality outing, which takes away from the edge that is being priced into a Verlander start. This is an easy New York offense to fade but its still being priced as a Top-10 unit, when in fact it sits in the bottom half of the league in most categories. The Mets lost to Patrick Corbin yesterday and managed just two earned runs off of the lefty.

I’ll gladly take the Rays at +140 on the ML as the opener situation for the visitors is better than it looks on paper.

My best bet: Rays moneyline (+140 at Pinnacle)

Rays vs Mets moneyline analysis

Betting on anything to do with the Mets has been frustrating this season. They’re two games below .500 and 6.5 games out of the top spot in the division despite opening the year as one of the World Series odds favorites. They've also lost bettors over 11 units on straight moneyline bets this season. The offense is still underachieving, and they’re 4-6 SU in their last 10 games despite have faced some of the worst teams in the NL in Washington, Colorado, and Cincinnati.

Looking even further back, over the Mets’ last six series, they’re 3-4 SU vs. Washington, 1-2 SU vs. Atlanta, 0-3 vs. Detroit, 1-2 SU vs. Colorado, and 1-2 SU vs. Cincinnati. The highest payroll by nearly $100m has lost or tied each of its last seven series despite a cakewalk of a schedule.

Now they have to slow down the Rays, who rank first in OPS, home runs, average, and sit second in runs/9. Tampa Bay had the day off yesterday, which is very positive considering today they’ll be using an opener in Beeks with Chirinos eating the middle innings.

Chirinos has quietly filled in as a solid middle-inning eater for the Rays, and the pitcher gives up very few hits with just 14 allowed over 24-plus innings, with batters hitting just .167 off of him. He’s yet to give up a home run, and has also allowed just six doubles.

Verlander is back to form and has looked great in his two starts this season. He’s faced some weak opposition though in the Reds and Tigers, but received just two runs of support in those games as his offense continues to fall flat despite the salaries.

If Tampa can keep this close, it has a very good chance to win this game, as I’m not weighing the Verlander-vs.-an-opener angle as high as the books with the Mets as -155 favorites.

Tampa has the edge in offense, managing, and bullpen as well as a rest advantage. This will be the best offense Verlander has seen since returning, and Chirinos might be undervalued here with a 2.22 ERA and a sub-1.00 WHIP.

Verlander can pitch well in this game, but the Rays can still win.  

Rays vs Mets Over/Under analysis

This total opened briefly at 8 before hitting 8.5 and now leans to the Over. The weather is playing a big factor in the Over steam, as Citi Field will be near-80 degrees and double-digit winds will be blowing out to right field.

I do usually trust the market movement but I don’t love this Over — especially with some books hitting 9. 

Verlander has looked good and is up to 100 pitches already. He hasn’t faced elite competition, but still allowed just two hits at Great American Ball Park in his last start. 

The Beeks/Chirinos stack is not a typical opener situation and is one that has kept runs off the board in the past, including a 2-1 loss in Baltimore in Beeks' last start. With how poorly the New York offense has been this season and even more so of late, it’s a great matchup for the Tampa Bay bullpen that owns the sixth-best ERA in baseball.

I think the Over has swung too far after opening at 8, and the weather might not be as beneficial as Over bettors are hoping, as that wind is blowing slightly across the outfield into right field and not straight out. 

I’d play the Under 8.5 at even money or better, which would make the Under 9 at -120 a very strong play. 

Rays vs Mets game info

Starting pitchers

Yonny Chirinos (1-1, 2.22 ERA): Beeks, a left-hander, will open today’s game and likely give way to bridge pitcher Yonny Chirinos, who will eat a majority of the innings. The Rays are 1-1 SU when Beeks starts this year and over his last five outings, he has a 1.35 ERA. His numbers look inflated thanks to a pair of rough outings, but he has been scoreless in seven of his last nine efforts. Chirinos has a 2.22 ERA and a 0.96 WHIP on the season, but does have eight walks over his last two outings. 

Justin Verlander (1-1, 2.25 ERA): Verlander is making the Mets a betting favorite today, as this will be his third start of the season after missing the first five weeks with a shoulder strain. He had this start pushed back a day, as he is coming off a 104-pitch outing vs. the Reds last week, so the pitch count is ramped up. However, getting run support is an issue with this lineup that currently sits in the Bottom 10 in runs per/9 at 4.34. 

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The Under is 5-0 in the Mets’ last five home games vs. a left-handed starter. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Mets

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