Rays vs Yankees Predictions, Picks, Odds: McClanahan Dominates Struggling Yanks

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays will wrap up a three-game series on Wednesday night in the Big Apple.

The vibes surrounding this Yankees team have perhaps reached a season low, and they’ll be looking to avoid a sweep of the second-place Rays.

Tampa has taken the first two games of this series and has done so in a relatively comfortable fashion. That's pulled the Rays to within 1.5 games of the division-leading Orioles in what will be a hotly-contested division down the stretch.  

Read on for my best bet and full MLB betting picks for Yankees vs. Rays on Wednesday, August 2.

Rays vs Yankees odds

Rays vs Yankees predictions

I’ve written about it before, and I’ll repeat it: I’m a New York Yankees fan and quite unhappy with this team. 

It feels like things have reached the year's low point and making nonsensical moves at the trade deadline didn’t help either. From a purely situational standpoint, it’s tough to believe this Yankees team has much fight left in it this season.

With that in mind, it’s tough for me to back them. I’m much more inclined to fade them, and that’s what I'll do with my best bet tonight. I'll fade the sore point of this team in its offense with the team total Under. And I’ll do that for many more reasons than simply the situation they find themselves in. 

Shane McClanahan will take the mound for the Tampa Bay Rays three starts removed from a shoulder injury that put him on the 15-day IL. He hasn't been his best self but considering who he is and this offense's current state, I feel comfortable backing him here.

That’s because the Yankees have slipped in runs per game lately from a place already near the bottom of the league. For the season, the Bronx Bombers rank eighth last in run-scoring and second last over the last three games at just 2.00 runs per game. 

McClanahan is a lefty who relies on getting strikeouts and chasing pitches to get through games. Exactly zero of those things work in New York’s favor. This lineup has the second-worst BABip in baseball against left-handed pitchers and sees drops in batted balls against them, too.

That second thing is an aspect that can be more significant to them than some others, given their power reliance. They’ve also been striking a lot lately. Following their immense run-scoring issues has been an uptick in whiffs as they have the highest number in baseball over the last three games coming in at a whopping total of just over 12. 

My projections had the Yankees with around a 60% chance to score less than four runs tonight, which gives a solid edge on the plus-money price offered at FanDuel.

Adding fuel to this is the conditions in the Yankee Stadium. It’ll be a bit cooler and winds will blow in and into left field. According to BallParkPal, that’s good for a historical reduction of runs by around 7%. New York’s struggling offense doesn’t need anything else going against it, and it’ll get one more. 

My best bet: Yankees team total Under 3.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Rays vs Yankees same-game parlay

Yankees TT Under 3.5 (-115)

Shane McLanahan Over 6.5 strikeouts (+125)

No run scored in the first inning (-115)

+475 at bet365

We’re going for a relatively straightforward same-game parlay tonight that combines some strong beliefs we have in this one: It’ll be a pitcher's duel and the Yankees will struggle to make contact.

For starters, we paired our best bet with McClanahan striking out 7+ batters. This shouldn’t be too difficult. Strikeouts — to me — are an excellent sign of where a team is mentally, and judging by actions, interviews, and performances, it very much seems like this Yankees team is ready for the season to be over.

I mentioned their recent strikeout struggles, but they’ve also chased a ton of pitches. They've nearly moved to an MLB league average for chasing pitches on the season, which is impressive after they spent much of the season in the Bottom 5 of baseball in chase rate. A guy in McClanahan with a strikeout rate in the Top 30% of baseball is not exactly what you want to see with these struggles.

Lastly, we grabbed no runs scored in the first inning at -115 to round things off. It felt like a steal at that price as it was something my projections priced around -150. You know how I feel about McClanahan tonight, and if New York goes with its usual lineup, he should have minimal issues working through things.

Let’s touch on the other side, though. For as much as I’ve bagged on New York here, Gerrit Cole has been close to brilliant. He’s in some of the best form of his career and I'll back him to continue to deliver for his team in a dire position like he’s done for much of the season. 

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rays vs Yankees moneyline and Over/Under analysis

If you’ve made it this far, you must know I’m strongly leaning toward the Rays tonight. 

I saw more value in fading the Yankees' offense because this game finishing 2-0 or 3-1 would surprise no one. That said, the best way to approach betting a side here is to get in on things live.

Suppose the Yankees surprise me and plate an early run? That would be the spot to jump in at anything +110 or better. Both pitchers could go deep, but if one gets pulled before the sixth, you’ll see a real edge that goes to the Rays. They have the more rested bullpen by a nice margin and have the better available pitchers. 

I placed a unit on the Under 7.5 at -104 at FanDuel as everything about this feels like a pitcher's duel. I’ve talked enough about the Yankees, their matchup, and why I’ll be fading it tonight, but let’s look at the other side. 

As I mentioned earlier, Cole has been a model of consistency in a season that hasn’t included many of them. It’s hard not to think that doesn’t continue today.

Tampa’s blistering start to the season inflates so many offense numbers, but they’ve had their ebbs and flows. July saw a stretch where they scored 3+ runs just once over 10 games, and they're probably due for a bit more negative regression.

It’s also Cole on the mound. Much like his opponent, he is also reliant on chases outside the zone for strikeouts, and he should have success against a fairly free-swinging Tampa side with the seventh-highest chase rate in the league. 

While these two have seen high-scoring games in the past, with their last 10 games going Over at a 7-3 clip, it’s now had two straight meetings go Under. In addition to that, New York has gone Under their team total in 30 of its last 54 home games. 

Trend to know

The Yankees have stayed Under their team total in 29 of their last 44 games, a trend that would put you up 13.25 units. Find more MLB betting trends for Rays vs. Yankees

Rays vs Yankees game info

Starting pitchers

Shane McClanahan (11-1, 3.00 ERA): I’m not sure McClanahan’s season has been precisely one that deems an 11-1 record, but he’s been quite good. McClanahan’s ERA has jumped slightly from a season ago, but again, it’s still been quite good. He has both a chase rate and fastball velocity that set in elite territory among starting pitchers, along with a pretty impressive strikeout rate. Like many fastball pitchers, you’d like for him to give up less hard contact, but he makes up for it with how many whiffs he’s created. 

Gerrit Cole (9-2, 2.64 ERA): It may be a bit harsh, but you could argue that Cole has been the lone bright spot in a nightmare season for New York. If you wanted to be less harsh, you’d say he’s been the brightest. Like we’ve grown accustomed to with Cole, he’s a flame-throwing right-hander who gets a ton of swings and misses. The metrics tell that story with a strikeout rate in the Top 20% of baseball, a fastball velocity in the Top 10%, and an above-average whiff rate. Cole will come into this matchup off a strong start, going seven scoreless innings against the Orioles. 

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