The New York Yankees saw their three-game winning streak snapped yesterday, as the Tampa Bay Rays took the first game of this weekend set by an 8-2 score.
Tampa Bay currently has the best record in baseball and has won three of four so far against New York this season, but the Yanks are MLB odds favorites tonight with ace Gerrit Cole on the mound.
New York might feel confident with Cole, but I'll break down why doubling up with the Rays is the play to make in my free MLB picks for Rays vs. Yankees on May 12.
Rays vs Yankees odds
Rays vs Yankees predictions
In a season in where the New York Yankees have struggled to build any lasting momentum, Gerrit Cole has been one of the few reliable parts. He enters tonight 5-0 with a 2.09 ERA on the season, with his efforts being a large reason why New York has managed to stay above .500.
New York also has a clear edge in Friday’s pitching matchup, with the Tampa Bay Rays utilizing Trevor Kelley as an opener, which puts Tampa Bay in the rare role of underdog.
Being a plus-money 'dog is no doubt deserved tonight... but it’s worth questioning just how big a favorite New York should be — and in my opinion, -175 is just too much.
For one, the Rays have had plenty of success against Cole, both this year and in the past. Tampa Bay touched up the Yankees ace up for six runs (five earned) and eight hits over five innings last Sunday, and Cole is just 2-7 with a 3.80 ERA against the Rays for his career, with Tampa hitters going deep 12 times in just 97 innings.
Regardless of who they’re going against, the Rays can hit: They're averaging 6.13 runs per game, second only to Texas, and lead the majors in both OPS (.855) and home runs (76). Don't expect Cole to shut down this lineup, as we just saw less than a week ago.
There are always concerns when a team relies on a bullpen game, but Tampa Bay is better suited to the task than most. Rays relievers have put up a 3.08 ERA (third) and a 1.16 WHIP (fourth) this year, proving capable of shutting down opponents when necessary. Kelley has thrown just two innings this year, but there’s plenty of talent backing him up in the bullpen, with Colin Poche, Jason Adam, and Ryan Thompson among the best of the bunch — and all well-rested entering tonight.
The Yankees' offense has been middling at best this year, putting up just 4.36 runs per game, and while the lineup came alive this week, that happened mostly against the Oakland A's, the easiest assignment for hitters in the majors.
New York was snapped back to reality last night, managing just two hits across seven shutout innings vs. Drew Rasmussen and scoring just two garbage-time runs, and the Yanks are averaging just four runs per game against the Rays in 2023.
Tampa Bay has a huge lineup advantage, and while the Yankees have the better starting pitcher, Cole's history makes me believe this should be closer to a tossup than the current moneyline price — there’s a ton of value on the Rays.
My best bet: Rays moneyline (+155 at BetRivers)
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Rays vs Yankees moneyline analysis
The Yankees opened tonight’s game as a -169 favorite, with the Rays-Twins line movement shifting slightly more towards New York, sitting around -175 as of noon ET.
The Rays are having a historically good start to the season and as a result, have been great to bettors in 2023. If you bet on Tampa Bay every day this year, you’d be up over 17.5 units on the moneyline. Meanwhile, the Yankees have essentially broken even on their moneyline bets this year.
While Tampa Bay has cooled down from their blistering pace over the last few weeks, it’s still hard to imagine they’ll be listed as an underdog in many games, let alone a significant dog like today. Cole's presence on the mound for the Yankees is the main reason for this, but this matchup isn’t quite as bad for the Rays as the numbers suggest.
In order to break even at +155, the Rays only have to win 39.2% of the time. This game is much close to a 55/45 matchup in favor of the Yankees, which implies we should be getting somewhere closer to +120 or +125 on Tampa Bay.
Rays vs Yankees Over/Under analysis
The total for this game opened at 7.5, but bettors quickly pushed that number up. The consensus Over/Under is now 8.5, with a slight preference for the Under.
Tampa Bay’s outstanding offense has frequently pushed it above the number, with the Over going 20-16-3 in Rays games this season. The Yankees have been the opposite, playing to a 22-16-1 record for the Under.
It’s understandable that the total has risen in this game with Tampa Bay using an opener and patching together a bullpen game. There’s also the fact that Cole has struggled against the Rays, which may have bettors expecting him to allow at least a few runs tonight. Yankee Stadium is also a hitters’ ballpark, though not an extreme one.
While I would have been on the Over at 7.5 runs, the 8.5 number is a lot less enticing. The Rays have been solid at keeping opponents in check even when they use their bullpen, and we have to expect Cole to be a bit better than he was in his last outing against Tampa Bay. I’m staying off the total tonight, but my lean would be to the Under.
Rays vs Yankees game info
| Location: | Yankee Stadium, Bronx, NY |
| Date: | Friday, May 12, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MLB Network |
Starting pitchers
Trevor Kelley (0-1, 9.00 ERA): Kelley will be utilized as an opener on Friday, with Josh Fleming and others picking up the bulk of the work. A journeyman with limited MLB experience, Kelley has a 7.23 ERA over 37 1/3 innings in four seasons with four different teams. He’s hardly the best option for the Rays, but his only role will be to get through an inning or two before Tampa Bay can turn to its more reliable relievers.
Gerrit Cole (5-0, 2.09 ERA): Cole has been excellent since joining the Yankees in 2020, but this may be the first season in which he is truly living up to what New York expected from its ace. Cole has pitched to a 2.61 FIP and a 1.01 WHIP, while allowing just two homers in his first 51 2/3 innings of work in 2023. However, both of those home runs came on Sunday vs. the Rays, who knocked Cole around for six runs and eight hits over five innings.
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