The Houston Astros welcome the Boston Red Sox to Minute Maid Park on Thursday afternoon for the finale of their four-game set as the hosts look to claim the series win.
Houston will hand the ball over to J.P. France, who’s been excellent over his last six starts while posting a 5-1 record over that span.
Can France slow down a Boston squad that’s been scoring more than six runs per game over the past week? Find out in our Red Sox vs Astros MLB picks and predictions for Thursday, August 24.
Red Sox vs Astros odds
Red Sox vs Astros predictions
After dropping the first two games of the series, the Boston Red Sox got back into the win column on Wednesday with a 7-5 victory in extra innings courtesy of a three-run bomb from Adam Duvall.
Houston Astros starter Jose Urquidy had a rough night, allowing eight hits and four earned runs before being pulled midway through the fifth inning, but the Astros’ bullpen shut down the Red Sox until Duvall’s homer in the 10th. The Red Sox scored 7.33 runs per game in their three-game sweep of the Yankees just prior to this series, but have now averaged just 3.67 runs over the last three contests, excluding extra innings.
Boston could have another challenging day at the plate as J.P. France comes into this game in excellent form. The Astros pitcher has posted 12 quality starts in just 17 outings this season, while his 2.75 ERA would rank him second in the majors behind only Blake Snell (2.73) if he met the innings pitched threshold.
France has held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in seven straight starts, posting a 1.94 ERA over that span, and has pitched through the seventh inning in four of those outings. All signs point to another solid start from France and potentially a slow day at the plate for the Red Sox.
My best bet: Red Sox Under 4.5 Runs (-135 at DraftKings)
Red Sox vs Astros same-game parlay
Red Sox Under 4.5 Runs
Devers 2+ Total Bases
Tucker 1+ RBI
We’ll start today’s same-game parlay with our best bet, and round it out by looking at a couple of hot hitters in Rafael Devers and Kyle Tucker.
Devers has been Boston’s most consistent batter over the past week, tallying a team-high 12 hits and 23 bases while hitting .375 through his last seven games. The third baseman went hitless on Wednesday but has recorded multiple bases in five of his last seven outings.
Meanwhile, Tucker has been an RBI machine for the Astros with his 23 runs driven in during August tied for the top spot in the majors.
The right fielder has been productive in this series with three RBI in his last two games, so we’ll see if he can keep it going in the series finale. If you want to get extra spicy with this wager, you can take Tucker to get two RBI at +500 — he’s driven in multiple runs in eight of the last 11 games in which he’s recorded an RBI.
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Red Sox vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis
The Astros opened as the slight favorite in the MLB odds today at -115 on the moneyline but got a bit of a boost by Thursday morning, jumping to around -130 at most books. I think with the pitching matchup swaying in Houston’s favor, the Astros would be my pick in this one.
Brayan Bello, the Red Sox starter, has not been nearly as consistent as France. The right-hander has given up three or more earned runs in five of his last seven starts, and four-plus runs in three of those contests. Don’t be surprised if the top of the Astros order has a field day in this one.
Today’s total opened at 9 runs, and the Over is going to be the play here. While I do think France could shut down the Red Sox offense, the Astros have more than enough firepower to push today’s total to at least 9 or 10 runs.
Houston is averaging seven runs per game so far during this series, and Bello could present them with another opportunity to run up the score. We’ve seen the total hit nine-plus runs in five straight games for the Astros and seven of their last eight contests, while the same has happened in seven straight outings for the Red Sox.
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Trend to know
The Over is 7-0 in Boston’s last seven games. Find more MLB betting trends for Red Sox vs. Astros
Red Sox vs Astros game info
| Location: | Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Thursday, August 24, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NESN, AT&T SportsNet-Southwest |
Starting pitchers
Brayan Bello (9-7, 3.70 ERA): Bello has been up and down over the last few weeks, holding the Yankees and Royals to just one earned run in two of his last four starts, but giving up four earned runs in the other two outings.
J.P. France (9-4, 2.75 ERA): France took the loss last time out against the Mariners but put up another solid start, allowing seven hits and two earned runs over six innings. The right-hander has not allowed more than two earned runs since July 5 — a span of seven straight outings — and has not given up more than three runs since May 29 (14 starts ago).
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